瀾起科技

SHSE:688008

中國 / 資訊科技 / 半導體及半導體設備

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股息

10 年 DCF 增長退出價

股價

76.86 CNY

公允價值

124.55 CNY

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	10.8% - 9.8%	10.3%
Perpetuity Growth Rate	1.5% - 2.5%	2.0%
Fair Value	¥113.96 - ¥137.93	¥124.55
Upside	48.3% - 79.5%	62.1%

23.0%

Revenue 10y CAGR

54.3%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Gordon Growth Exit

股價

76.86 CNY

公允價值

124.55 CNY

看漲

62.1%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(CNY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	3,639	5,617	7,508	15,534	18,698	22,144	24,912	26,780	27,718	28,272	28,838
% Growth	59.2%	54.4%	33.7%	106.9%	20.4%	18.4%	12.5%	7.5%	3.5%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	1,500	2,370	3,032	7,826	10,355	12,817	14,668	15,902	16,459	16,788	17,124
% of Revenue	41.2%	42.2%	40.4%	50.4%	55.4%	57.9%	58.9%	59.4%	59.4%	59.4%	59.4%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34	Terminal

EBITDA		2,370	3,032	7,826	10,355	12,817	14,668	15,902	16,459	16,788	17,124	17,124
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(210)	(147)	(305)	(367)	(435)	(489)	(526)	(544)	(555)	(566)	(227)

EBIT		2,161	2,884	7,521	9,988	12,382	14,179	15,376	15,914	16,232	16,557	16,897
Pro forma Taxes		(302)	(404)	(1,053)	(1,398)	(1,733)	(1,985)	(2,153)	(2,228)	(2,273)	(2,318)	(2,366)
NOPAT	1,215	1,858	2,481	6,468	8,589	10,648	12,194	13,223	13,686	13,960	14,239	14,531

Capital Expenditures	#NUM!	(446)	(457)	(190)	(226)	(263)	(226)	(238)	(243)	(236)	(239)	(239)
NWC Investment	596	871	833	3,533	1,393	1,517	1,219	823	413	244	249	254
(+) D&A	87	210	147	305	367	435	489	526	544	555	566	227

Free Cash Flow	#NUM!	2,493	3,003	10,116	10,123	12,337	13,675	14,333	14,401	14,524	14,816	14,773
% Growth		NM	20%	237%	0%	22%	11%	5%	0%	1%	2%	0%

載入錯誤

瀾起科技

SHSE:688008

中國 / 資訊科技 / 半導體及半導體設備

10 年 DCF 增長退出價