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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 53.2x - 58.8x | 56.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 23.0x - 25.4x | 24.2x |
| Fair Value | ¥10.43 - ¥11.33 | ¥10.88 |
| Upside | 28.3% - 39.4% | 33.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Sichuan Fulin Transportation Group Co., Ltd. | 2357 | SZSE:002357 |
| Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | YMM | NYSE:YMM |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co., Ltd. | 601816 | SHSE:601816 |
| China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co., Ltd | 600125 | SHSE:600125 |
| China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co., Ltd. | 1213 | SZSE:001213 |
| Shanghai Shentong Metro Co.,Ltd. | 600834 | SHSE:600834 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 2357 | YMM | 601816 | 600125 | 1213 | 600834 | ||
| SZSE:002357 | NYSE:YMM | SHSE:601816 | SHSE:600125 | SZSE:001213 | SHSE:600834 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -24.8% | NM- | 3.6% | -1.6% | 6.8% | 9.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 9.1% | NM- | 36.4% | 2.1% | 12.0% | 12.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -160.8% | 131.5% | 41.7% | 32.5% | 29.9% | -24.2% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 2.3% | -39.5% | 32.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 16.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -1.0% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 15.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 2.1% | 22.0% | 43.5% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 12.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -3.5% | 22.0% | 44.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 12.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.90x | 4.86x | 8.28x | 0.46x | 1.19x | 5.14x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.5x | 21.4x | 14.1x | 6.0x | 9.9x | 36.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -55.0x | 22.1x | 18.5x | 9.5x | 20.2x | 42.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -55.0x | 18.5x | 22.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 42.0x | 50.5x | 96.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 53.2x | 56.0x | 58.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 72 | 72 | 72 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,812 | 4,012 | 4,213 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 870 | 870 | 870 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 4,682 | 4,882 | 5,083 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 477.4 | 477.4 | 477.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 9.81 | 10.23 | 10.65 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 9.81 | 10.23 | 10.65 | 8.13 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 20.6% | 25.8% | 31.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 2357 | YMM | 601816 | 600125 | 1213 | 600834 | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,642 | 54,583 | 349,025 | 6,491 | 13,013 | 3,011 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 111 | 20,813 | 7,497 | 1,786 | 5,246 | 562 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,251 | 9,876 | 0 | 190 | 183 | 551 | |
| (-) Debt | (543) | (65) | (53,210) | (830) | (220) | (157) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (72) | (458) | (22,913) | (26) | 0 | (86) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,389 | 84,749 | 280,398 | 7,611 | 18,222 | 3,881 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 313.5 | 1,045.8 | 49,106.5 | 1,305.5 | 4,444.4 | 477.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 7.62 | 81.04 | 5.71 | 5.83 | 4.10 | 8.13 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 7.28 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.62 | 11.13 | 5.71 | 5.83 | 4.10 | 8.13 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | USD | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 7.28 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |