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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.7x - 0.7x | 0.7x |
Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.6x - 0.6x | 0.6x |
Fair Value | ¥4.26 - ¥4.68 | ¥4.47 |
Upside | 13.8% - 25.1% | 19.5% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
---|---|---|
Hainan Shuangcheng Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd. | 2693 | SZSE:002693 |
Jiangsu Sinopep-Allsino Biopharmaceutical Co., Ltd. | 688076 | SHSE:688076 |
Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. | 600196 | SHSE:600196 |
Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. | 600276 | SHSE:600276 |
Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc. | 513 | SZSE:000513 |
Harbin Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. | 600664 | SHSE:600664 |
Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
2693 | 688076 | 600196 | 600276 | 513 | 600664 | |||
SZSE:002693 | SHSE:688076 | SHSE:600196 | SHSE:600276 | SZSE:000513 | SHSE:600664 | |||
Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
5Y CAGR | -6.9% | 34.3% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | ||
3Y CAGR | -4.3% | 36.1% | 1.6% | -6.3% | 5.7% | 12.7% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | -30.3% | 57.2% | -1.2% | 16.3% | -7.3% | 5.9% | ||
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
5 Year Average Margin | -17.9% | 18.9% | 6.6% | 18.6% | 16.7% | 1.6% | ||
Prior Fiscal Year | -16.1% | 18.5% | 2.9% | 14.4% | 15.3% | 4.0% | ||
Latest Fiscal Year | -15.6% | 28.1% | 6.8% | 18.3% | 15.5% | 4.0% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | -37.5% | 28.1% | 6.8% | 21.0% | 19.8% | 5.0% | ||
Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 22.41x | 8.46x | 1.60x | 10.54x | 1.75x | 0.55x | ||
EV / LTM EBIT | -59.7x | 30.1x | 23.6x | 50.2x | 8.8x | 10.9x | ||
Price / LTM Sales | 21.35x | 8.04x | 1.45x | 11.39x | 2.39x | 0.58x | ||
Low | Mid | High | ||||||
Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 1.60x | 8.46x | 22.41x | |||||
Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.55x | 0.79x | 0.88x | |||||
Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.65x | 0.69x | 0.72x | |||||
(x) LTM Revenue | 16,219 | 16,219 | 16,219 | |||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 10,619 | 11,178 | 11,737 | |||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 606 | 606 | 606 | |||||
(=) Equity Value | 11,226 | 11,785 | 12,344 | |||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 2,518.5 | 2,518.5 | 2,518.5 | |||||
Implied Value Range | 4.46 | 4.68 | 4.90 | |||||
FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.46 | 4.68 | 4.90 | 3.74 | ||||
Upside / (Downside) | 19.2% | 25.1% | 31.0% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 2693 | 688076 | 600196 | 600276 | 513 | 600664 | |
Enterprise Value | 4,040 | 13,717 | 64,703 | 270,233 | 20,077 | 8,813 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 50 | 662 | 16,733 | 22,905 | 10,809 | 3,126 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 25,827 | 1,469 | 1,661 | 38 | |
(-) Debt | (209) | (1,335) | (35,947) | (88) | (4,101) | (1,820) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (32) | 0 | (12,673) | (564) | (777) | (738) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 3,848 | 13,044 | 58,644 | 293,956 | 27,668 | 9,419 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 414.7 | 219.8 | 2,388.7 | 6,358.6 | 788.5 | 2,518.5 | |
Implied Stock Price | 9.28 | 59.35 | 24.55 | 46.23 | 35.09 | 3.74 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 9.28 | 59.35 | 24.55 | 46.23 | 35.09 | 3.74 | |
Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |