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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 11.8x - 13.1x | 12.5x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 12.1x - 13.4x | 12.7x |
Fair Value | ¥5.17 - ¥5.72 | ¥5.45 |
Upside | -0.2% - 10.4% | 5.1% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Xinjiang Qingsong Building Materials and Chemicals(Group)Co,Ltd. | 600425 | SHSE:600425 |
China National Building Material Company Limited | 3323 | SEHK:3323 |
Chongqing Changjiang River Moulding Material (Group) Co., Ltd. | 1296 | SZSE:001296 |
CEVIA Enviro Inc. | 885 | SZSE:000885 |
China West Construction Group Co., Ltd | 2302 | SZSE:002302 |
Shandong Jinjing Science & Technology Stock Co.,Ltd | 600586 | SHSE:600586 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
600425 | 3323 | 1296 | 885 | 2302 | 600586 | ||
SHSE:600425 | SEHK:3323 | SZSE:001296 | SZSE:000885 | SZSE:002302 | SHSE:600586 | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -10.9% | -26.8% | NM- | 14.5% | 11.1% | 8.8% | |
3Y CAGR | -12.7% | -40.1% | 0.1% | 24.6% | -4.4% | 13.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -32.3% | -37.8% | 33.6% | -1.9% | -19.3% | 1.6% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 16.6% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 38.4% | 4.3% | 11.8% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 15.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 30.6% | 4.0% | 7.0% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 10.6% | 4.3% | 13.4% | 30.4% | 4.5% | 9.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 10.6% | 4.3% | 13.6% | 30.9% | 2.6% | 8.5% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.47x | 1.27x | 2.12x | 3.75x | 0.45x | 1.01x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.0x | 10.5x | 11.1x | 7.8x | 11.3x | 6.3x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 13.9x | 29.2x | 15.6x | 12.1x | 17.2x | 11.8x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 12.1x | 15.6x | 29.2x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 7.4x | 16.1x | 21.5x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 11.8x | 12.5x | 13.1x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 615 | 615 | 615 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 7,284 | 7,667 | 8,051 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (27) | (27) | (27) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 7,256 | 7,640 | 8,023 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,417.3 | 1,417.3 | 1,417.3 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 5.12 | 5.39 | 5.66 | ||||
FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 5.12 | 5.39 | 5.66 | 5.18 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -1.2% | 4.1% | 9.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 600425 | 3323 | 1296 | 885 | 2302 | 600586 | |
Enterprise Value | 6,432 | 231,224 | 2,309 | 24,272 | 9,794 | 7,369 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,273 | 32,959 | 471 | 1,259 | 2,037 | 2,148 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 552 | 37,136 | 0 | 600 | 305 | 355 | |
(-) Debt | (1,575) | (194,477) | (142) | (16,626) | (3,307) | (2,466) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (296) | (75,084) | (9) | (1,133) | (1,230) | (64) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 6,387 | 31,757 | 2,629 | 8,373 | 7,599 | 7,342 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,604.7 | 8,434.8 | 148.6 | 642.1 | 1,262.4 | 1,417.3 | |
Implied Stock Price | 3.98 | 3.76 | 17.69 | 13.04 | 6.02 | 5.18 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3.98 | 4.03 | 17.69 | 13.04 | 6.02 | 5.18 | |
Trading Currency | CNY | HKD | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |