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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 34.4x - 38.0x | 36.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 31.8x - 35.2x | 33.5x |
| Fair Value | ¥1.29 - ¥1.75 | ¥1.52 |
| Upside | -46.9% - -27.9% | -37.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Top Spring International Holdings Limited | 3688 | SEHK:3688 |
| Shenzhen Centralcon Investment Holding Co., Ltd. | 42 | SZSE:000042 |
| Langold Real Estate Co., Ltd. | 2305 | SZSE:002305 |
| Greenland Holdings Corporation Limited | 600606 | SHSE:600606 |
| Tianjin Jintou State-owned Urban Development Co., Ltd. | 600322 | SHSE:600322 |
| Yunnan Metropolitan RealEstate Development Co.Ltd | 600239 | SHSE:600239 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 3688 | 42 | 2305 | 600606 | 600322 | 600239 | ||
| SEHK:3688 | SZSE:000042 | SZSE:002305 | SHSE:600606 | SHSE:600322 | SHSE:600239 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | -26.9% | NM- | -15.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | -43.4% | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -16.5% | 165.6% | -486.8% | -89.7% | -342.4% | -44.9% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -15.6% | 5.9% | -21.2% | 4.5% | -50.4% | 2.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -48.2% | -13.3% | 1.2% | 4.1% | -1.5% | 20.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -39.1% | 15.4% | -82.2% | 1.6% | -21.4% | 11.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -39.1% | 15.4% | -33.8% | 0.4% | -284.9% | 10.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 4.84x | 3.37x | 2.56x | 0.86x | 30.44x | 4.51x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -12.4x | 21.9x | -7.6x | 205.9x | -10.7x | 41.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -12.2x | 29.4x | -6.5x | -167.1x | -10.1x | 51.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -12.4x | -7.6x | 205.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -97.3x | -42.0x | 60.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 34.4x | 36.2x | 38.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 206 | 206 | 206 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 7,095 | 7,468 | 7,842 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (4,973) | (4,973) | (4,973) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,122 | 2,495 | 2,868 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,605.7 | 1,605.7 | 1,605.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.32 | 1.55 | 1.79 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.32 | 1.55 | 1.79 | 2.43 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -45.6% | -36.1% | -26.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 3688 | 42 | 2305 | 600606 | 600322 | 600239 | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,559 | 4,800 | 6,034 | 230,302 | 10,869 | 8,875 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 380 | 0 | 1,121 | 31,551 | 244 | 581 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 65 | 0 | 2,949 | 52,371 | 446 | 413 | |
| (-) Debt | (6,574) | 0 | (6,096) | (228,219) | (8,674) | (5,198) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 44 | 0 | (1,755) | (61,832) | (496) | (769) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 474 | 4,800 | 2,254 | 24,173 | 2,388 | 3,902 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,529.3 | 664.8 | 1,734.2 | 14,054.2 | 1,105.7 | 1,605.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.31 | 7.22 | 1.30 | 1.72 | 2.16 | 2.43 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.31 | 7.22 | 1.30 | 1.72 | 2.16 | 2.43 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |