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股息
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模型
財務狀況
比較
穩健度
圖表
10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價
股價
26.19
CNY
公允價值
49.63
CNY
Metrics
Range
Conclusion
Discount Rate
9.5% - 8.5%
9.0%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple
8.6x - 10.6x
9.6x
Fair Value
¥46.21 - ¥53.29
¥49.63
Upside
76.4% - 103.5%
89.5%
8.8%
Revenue 10y CAGR
15.8%
10y Avg EBITDA Margin
13.8%
Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR
10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit
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儲存
股價
26.19
CNY
公允價值
49.63
CNY
看漲
89.5%
Revenue and EBITDA
CapEx
Working Capital
D&A
Tax Rate
Discount Rate
Terminal Value
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast
(CNY in millions)
Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending
Dec-23
Dec-24
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Revenue
27,042
34,628
39,617
46,232
52,011
55,912
57,869
59,026
60,207
61,411
62,639
% Growth
24.1%
28.1%
14.4%
16.7%
12.5%
7.5%
3.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
EBITDA
2,675
4,753
5,450
6,210
8,287
9,468
9,799
9,995
10,195
10,399
10,607
% of Revenue
9.9%
13.7%
13.8%
13.4%
15.9%
16.9%
16.9%
16.9%
16.9%
16.9%
16.9%
支援算式
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Discounting Periods
Discounting Factors
Calculation of Enterprise Value
Equity Waterfall
Historical Financials
Current Trading Multiples
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)
Dec-24
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
EBITDA
4,753
5,450
6,210
8,287
9,468
9,799
9,995
10,195
10,399
10,607
Other Income / (Exp)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
D&A
(956)
(851)
(683)
(769)
(827)
(855)
(873)
(890)
(908)
(926)
EBIT
3,797
4,599
5,527
7,518
8,641
8,944
9,122
9,305
9,491
9,681
Pro forma Taxes
(342)
(414)
(497)
(677)
(778)
(805)
(821)
(837)
(854)
(871)
NOPAT
1,788
3,455
4,185
5,030
6,842
7,863
8,139
8,301
8,467
8,637
8,810
Capital Expenditures
(567)
(625)
(600)
(669)
(753)
(809)
(744)
(758)
(770)
(757)
(762)
NWC Investment
578
836
550
729
637
430
216
128
130
133
135
(+) D&A
711
956
851
683
769
827
855
873
890
908
926
Free Cash Flow
2,509
4,622
4,986
5,773
7,494
8,311
8,466
8,543
8,717
8,920
9,109
% Growth
84%
8%
16%
30%
11%
2%
1%
2%
2%
2%
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