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NIU
10.3%
TSLA_KZ
7.2%
000572
-3.4%
HK
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WarrenAI
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零跑汽車
SEHK:9863
中國 / 非必需消費品 / 汽車
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股息
財報
模型
財務狀況
比較
穩健度
圖表
10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價
股價
51.00
HKD
公允價值
76.82
HKD
Metrics
Range
Conclusion
Discount Rate
10.5% - 9.5%
10.0%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple
4.9x - 6.9x
5.9x
Fair Value
HK$ 72.40 - HK$ 81.58
HK$ 76.82
Upside
46.6% - 65.1%
55.5%
11.2%
Revenue 10y CAGR
8.7%
10y Avg EBITDA Margin
2.6%
Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR
10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit
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儲存
股價
51.00
HKD
公允價值
76.82
HKD
看漲
55.5%
Revenue and EBITDA
CapEx
Working Capital
D&A
Tax Rate
Discount Rate
Terminal Value
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast
(CNY in millions)
Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending
Dec-24
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Dec-34
Revenue
32,164
57,011
79,696
99,561
93,114
93,274
93,274
93,274
93,274
93,274
93,274
% Growth
92.1%
77.2%
39.8%
24.9%
-6.5%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
EBITDA
-2,640
903
3,052
5,117
10,181
10,199
10,199
10,199
10,199
10,199
10,199
% of Revenue
-8.2%
1.6%
3.8%
5.1%
10.9%
10.9%
10.9%
10.9%
10.9%
10.9%
10.9%
支援算式
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Discounting Periods
Discounting Factors
Calculation of Enterprise Value
Equity Waterfall
Historical Financials
Current Trading Multiples
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Dec-34
EBITDA
903
3,052
5,117
10,181
10,199
10,199
10,199
10,199
10,199
10,199
Other Income / (Exp)
0
0
1,774
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
D&A
(1,042)
(1,142)
(1,426)
(2,586)
(3,129)
(3,129)
(3,129)
(3,129)
(3,129)
(3,129)
EBIT
(139)
1,910
5,465
7,595
7,070
7,070
7,070
7,070
7,070
7,070
Pro forma Taxes
0
(267)
(765)
(1,063)
(990)
(990)
(990)
(990)
(990)
(990)
NOPAT
(2,847)
(139)
1,643
4,700
6,532
6,080
6,080
6,080
6,080
6,080
6,080
Capital Expenditures
(2,100)
(2,061)
(2,475)
(2,700)
(4,680)
(5,330)
(4,237)
(4,237)
(4,237)
(4,237)
(4,237)
NWC Investment
8,135
13,111
11,970
10,482
(3,402)
84
0
0
0
0
0
(+) D&A
671
1,042
1,142
1,426
2,586
3,129
3,129
3,129
3,129
3,129
3,129
Free Cash Flow
3,859
11,953
12,279
13,908
1,036
3,963
4,972
4,972
4,972
4,972
4,972
% Growth
210%
3%
13%
-93%
283%
25%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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