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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | -324.2x - -358.4x | -341.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 22.3x - 24.6x | 23.4x |
| Fair Value | HK$ 3.49 - HK$ 4.58 | HK$ 4.03 |
| Upside | -28.7% - -6.6% | -17.7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Juneyao Airlines Co., Ltd | 603885 | SHSE:603885 |
| Spring Airlines Co., Ltd. | 601021 | SHSE:601021 |
| Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. | ULCC | NasdaqGS:ULCC |
| Finnair Oyj | FIA1S | HLSE:FIA1S |
| Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA | NAS | OB:NAS |
| Air China Limited | 753 | SEHK:753 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 603885 | 601021 | ULCC | FIA1S | NAS | 753 | ||
| SHSE:603885 | SHSE:601021 | NasdaqGS:ULCC | HLSE:FIA1S | OB:NAS | SEHK:753 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 9.4% | 10.8% | NM- | -6.7% | 17.4% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 46.5% | 29.4% | -86.5% | -43.9% | -17.4% | -2230.1% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -3.2% | 0.8% | -18.2% | -26.2% | -38.1% | -18.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -40.7% | -35.3% | -4.1% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 0.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 12.2% | 16.0% | -7.3% | 3.8% | 5.5% | -0.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.3% | 14.4% | -7.3% | 3.8% | 5.5% | -0.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.56x | 2.97x | 1.25x | 0.53x | 0.49x | 1.79x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 16.7x | 13.5x | -23.1x | 3.8x | 2.5x | 23.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 25.0x | 20.7x | -17.1x | 14.0x | 8.9x | -358.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -17.1x | 14.0x | 25.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -358.0x | -28.5x | -9.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | -324.2x | -341.3x | -358.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | (833) | (833) | (833) | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 269,940 | 284,148 | 298,355 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (189,086) | (189,086) | (189,086) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 80,854 | 95,062 | 109,269 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 29,821.6 | 29,821.6 | 29,821.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2.71 | 3.19 | 3.66 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/HKD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 2.90 | 3.41 | 3.92 | 4.90 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -40.7% | -30.3% | -19.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 603885 | 601021 | ULCC | FIA1S | NAS | 753 | |
| Enterprise Value | 55,624 | 58,937 | 4,714 | 1,607 | 16,749 | 325,519 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,568 | 9,612 | 740 | 944 | 10,880 | 22,555 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 4,570 | 959 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20,137 | |
| (-) Debt | (33,103) | (18,743) | (4,468) | (1,885) | (16,077) | (235,981) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,202 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 28,671 | 50,765 | 986 | 666 | 11,552 | 136,433 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,188.6 | 976.8 | 227.2 | 204.8 | 963.9 | 29,821.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 13.10 | 51.97 | 4.34 | 3.25 | 11.99 | 4.57 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 13.10 | 51.97 | 4.34 | 3.25 | 11.99 | 4.90 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | USD | EUR | NOK | HKD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | |