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300767 -5.4%002785 -1.6%600539 1.5%

觀察名單觀點 ProPicks AI 篩選器數據瀏覽圖表已儲存工作

山水水泥

SEHK:691

中國 / 材料 / 建築材料

10 年 DCF 增長退出價

股價

0.55 HKD

公允價值

0.98 HKD

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	12.3% - 11.3%	11.8%
Perpetuity Growth Rate	0.0% - 1.0%	0.5%
Fair Value	HK$ 0.91 - HK$ 1.08	HK$ 0.98
Upside	53.5% - 82.7%	66.9%

0.0%

Revenue 10y CAGR

14.1%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

NM

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Gordon Growth Exit

股價

0.55 HKD

公允價值

0.98 HKD

看漲

66.9%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(CNY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	14,510	14,510	14,510	14,510	14,510	14,510	14,510	14,510	14,510	14,510	14,510
% Growth	-19.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

EBITDA	2,232	2,048	2,048	2,048	2,048	2,048	2,048	2,048	2,048	2,048	2,048
% of Revenue	15.4%	14.1%	14.1%	14.1%	14.1%	14.1%	14.1%	14.1%	14.1%	14.1%	14.1%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34	Terminal

EBITDA		2,048	2,048	2,048	2,048	2,048	2,048	2,048	2,048	2,048	2,048	2,048
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(1,164)	(1,164)	(1,164)	(1,164)	(1,164)	(1,164)	(1,164)	(1,164)	(1,164)	(1,164)	(1,022)

EBIT		884	884	884	884	884	884	884	884	884	884	1,026
Pro forma Taxes		(274)	(274)	(274)	(274)	(274)	(274)	(274)	(274)	(274)	(274)	(318)
NOPAT	618	610	610	610	610	610	610	610	610	610	610	708

Capital Expenditures	#NUM!	(1,076)	(1,076)	(1,076)	(1,076)	(1,076)	(1,076)	(1,076)	(1,076)	(1,076)	(1,076)	(1,076)
NWC Investment	(149)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
(+) D&A	1,337	1,164	1,164	1,164	1,164	1,164	1,164	1,164	1,164	1,164	1,164	1,022

Free Cash Flow	#NUM!	698	698	698	698	698	698	698	698	698	698	657
% Growth		NM	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	-6%

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