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觀察名單觀點 ProPicks AI 篩選器數據瀏覽圖表已儲存工作

百奧賽圖-B

SEHK:2315

中國 / 保健 / 生物科技

10 年 DCF 增長退出價

股價

13.36 HKD

公允價值

10.09 HKD

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	9.8% - 8.8%	9.3%
Perpetuity Growth Rate	0.0% - 1.0%	0.5%
Fair Value	HK$ 9.26 - HK$ 11.13	HK$ 10.09
Upside	-30.7% - -16.7%	-24.5%

7.1%

Revenue 10y CAGR

31.9%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

NM

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Gordon Growth Exit

股價

13.36 HKD

公允價值

10.09 HKD

看漲

-24.5%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(CNY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	980	1,216	1,410	1,586	1,705	1,765	1,800	1,836	1,873	1,910	1,948
% Growth	36.8%	24.0%	15.9%	12.5%	7.5%	3.5%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	319	299	419	511	566	586	598	610	622	634	647
% of Revenue	32.6%	24.6%	29.7%	32.2%	33.2%	33.2%	33.2%	33.2%	33.2%	33.2%	33.2%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34	Terminal

EBITDA		299	419	511	566	586	598	610	622	634	647	647
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(141)	(130)	(147)	(158)	(163)	(166)	(170)	(173)	(177)	(180)	(190)

EBIT		159	289	364	409	423	431	440	449	458	467	457
Pro forma Taxes		(22)	(40)	(51)	(57)	(59)	(60)	(62)	(63)	(64)	(65)	(64)
NOPAT	129	137	248	313	351	364	371	378	386	394	402	393

Capital Expenditures	#NUM!	(122)	(142)	(200)	(200)	(200)	(200)	(200)	(200)	(200)	(200)	(200)
NWC Investment	(17)	(16)	(13)	(12)	(8)	(4)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(3)	(1)
(+) D&A	169	141	130	147	158	163	166	170	173	177	180	190

Free Cash Flow	#NUM!	139	224	248	301	323	335	346	357	368	379	382
% Growth		NM	61%	11%	21%	7%	4%	3%	3%	3%	3%	1%

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