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申洲國際

SEHK:2313

香港 / 非必需消費品 / 紡織、成衣及奢侈品

綜觀

5 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價

股價

52.85 HKD

公允價值

92.49 HKD

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	8.8% - 7.8%	8.3%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple	5.7x - 7.7x	6.7x
Fair Value	HK$ 81.89 - HK$ 103.52	HK$ 92.49
Upside	54.8% - 95.7%	74.8%

14.6%

Revenue 5y CAGR

29.4%

5y Avg EBITDA Margin

25.4%

Unlevered FCF 5y CAGR

5-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit

股價

52.85 HKD

公允價值

92.49 HKD

看漲

74.8%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(CNY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29

Revenue	28,663	31,779	35,104	38,962	50,223	56,657
% Growth	14.8%	10.9%	10.5%	11.0%	28.9%	12.8%

EBITDA	7,248	8,436	9,766	11,035	15,504	18,907
% of Revenue	25.3%	26.5%	27.8%	28.3%	30.9%	33.4%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29

EBITDA		8,436	9,766	11,035	15,504	18,907
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(1,505)	(1,702)	(1,754)	(3,601)	(5,366)

EBIT		6,932	8,064	9,281	11,903	13,541
Pro forma Taxes		(762)	(887)	(1,021)	(1,309)	(1,490)
NOPAT	5,198	6,169	7,177	8,260	10,594	12,051

Capital Expenditures	(1,522)	(1,700)	(1,723)	(1,704)	(3,102)	(3,368)
NWC Investment	(1,247)	(1,052)	(1,122)	(1,302)	(3,801)	(2,172)
(+) D&A	1,408	1,505	1,702	1,754	3,601	5,366

Free Cash Flow	3,837	4,922	6,034	7,008	7,292	11,877
% Growth		28%	23%	16%	4%	63%

載入錯誤

申洲國際

SEHK:2313

香港 / 非必需消費品 / 紡織、成衣及奢侈品

5 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價