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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 81.0x - 89.5x | 85.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 44.8x - 49.5x | 47.2x |
| Fair Value | HK$ 0 - HK$ 0.41 | HK$ 0.077 |
| Upside | -100.0% - 299.4% | -24.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited | 881 | SEHK:881 |
| China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings Limited | 3669 | SEHK:3669 |
| Trans-China Automotive Holdings Limited | VI2 | Catalist:VI2 |
| China MeiDong Auto Holdings Limited | 1268 | SEHK:1268 |
| Cango Inc. | CANG | NYSE:CANG |
| China ZhengTong Auto Services Holdings Limited | 1728 | SEHK:1728 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 881 | 3669 | VI2 | 1268 | CANG | 1728 | ||
| SEHK:881 | SEHK:3669 | Catalist:VI2 | SEHK:1268 | NYSE:CANG | SEHK:1728 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 4.3% | -10.3% | NM- | -2.5% | -13.0% | -28.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -3.2% | -20.2% | NM- | -23.0% | 0.1% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -26.5% | -51.8% | -272.6% | -18.2% | 70.6% | -38.1% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.7% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | -5.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 6.6% | 4.5% | 0.4% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 2.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.2% | 2.3% | -0.9% | 3.7% | 22.7% | 2.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.4% | 1.9% | -0.9% | 3.7% | 22.7% | 1.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.27x | 0.11x | 0.27x | 0.19x | 0.81x | 0.97x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.0x | 5.5x | -31.3x | 5.1x | 3.6x | 85.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.0x | 15.5x | -10.0x | 10.1x | 3.7x | -68.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -31.3x | 5.1x | 6.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -4.0x | 20.2x | 41.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 81.0x | 85.2x | 89.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 245 | 245 | 245 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 19,834 | 20,878 | 21,922 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (20,636) | (20,636) | (20,636) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 0 | 242 | 1,286 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,347.0 | 3,347.0 | 3,347.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.38 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/HKD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.41 | 0.10 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -100.0% | -24.9% | 299.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 881 | 3669 | VI2 | 1268 | CANG | 1728 | |
| Enterprise Value | 47,516 | 7,197 | 664 | 4,129 | 628 | 20,958 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 21,328 | 1,728 | 34 | 2,657 | 2,521 | 879 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 138 | 1,247 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 544 | |
| (-) Debt | (37,300) | (5,102) | (580) | (4,081) | (170) | (21,135) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (166) | (393) | 0 | (122) | 0 | (925) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 31,516 | 4,677 | 118 | 2,615 | 2,979 | 322 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,367.0 | 1,876.2 | 589.6 | 1,346.2 | 104.4 | 3,347.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 13.31 | 2.49 | 0.20 | 1.94 | 28.55 | 0.10 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.93 | 0.93 | 5.41 | 0.93 | 7.26 | 0.93 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 14.26 | 2.67 | 0.04 | 2.08 | 3.93 | 0.10 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | HKD | SGD | HKD | USD | HKD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.93 | 0.93 | 5.41 | 0.93 | 7.26 | 0.93 | |