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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 3.3x - 3.7x | 3.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.7x - 4.1x | 3.9x |
| Fair Value | HK$ 0.12 - HK$ 0.28 | HK$ 0.20 |
| Upside | 5.1% - 149.8% | 77.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Sino Geophysical Co., Ltd | 300191 | SZSE:300191 |
| Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation | 1033 | SEHK:1033 |
| Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company Limited | 568 | SEHK:568 |
| Tong Petrotech Corp. | 300164 | SZSE:300164 |
| Shengli Oil & Gas Pipe Holdings Limited | 1080 | SEHK:1080 |
| Hilong Holding Limited | 1623 | SEHK:1623 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 300191 | 1033 | 568 | 300164 | 1080 | 1623 | ||
| SZSE:300191 | SEHK:1033 | SEHK:568 | SZSE:300164 | SEHK:1080 | SEHK:1623 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 1.5% | -32.1% | -11.5% | NM- | -4.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 11.6% | -29.9% | NM- | NM- | 17.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 317.0% | 25.6% | 1383.9% | -50.0% | 54.4% | 44.7% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 17.5% | 6.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | -5.3% | 18.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 24.0% | 5.6% | 0.2% | 11.2% | -12.1% | 16.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -7.5% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 14.0% | -5.7% | 14.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.6% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 8.3% | -5.7% | 15.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 11.82x | 0.58x | 2.55x | 2.06x | 0.28x | 0.50x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 123.0x | 8.3x | 36.4x | 24.7x | -4.9x | 3.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -135.0x | 26.5x | -30.1x | 166.4x | -3.1x | 5.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -4.9x | 24.7x | 123.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.7x | 4.7x | 5.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.3x | 3.5x | 3.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 739 | 739 | 739 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,461 | 2,590 | 2,720 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,273) | (2,273) | (2,273) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 188 | 318 | 447 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,696.4 | 1,696.4 | 1,696.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.26 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/HKD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.28 | 0.11 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 5.1% | 77.5% | 149.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 300191 | 1033 | 568 | 300164 | 1080 | 1623 | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,913 | 53,249 | 2,640 | 2,275 | 160 | 2,452 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 401 | 5,999 | 87 | 342 | 128 | 643 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1 | 389 | 5 | 221 | 170 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (677) | (23,447) | (1,456) | (310) | (311) | (2,921) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2) | 0 | 0 | (20) | (9) | 6 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 5,635 | 36,189 | 1,276 | 2,507 | 137 | 179 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 320.0 | 56,997.1 | 1,148.2 | 583.1 | 3,874.4 | 1,696.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 17.61 | 0.63 | 1.11 | 4.30 | 0.04 | 0.11 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.93 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 17.61 | 0.68 | 1.19 | 4.30 | 0.04 | 0.11 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | HKD | HKD | CNY | HKD | HKD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.93 | |