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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM P/E Multiple | 39.6x - 43.8x | 41.7x |
| Selected Fwd P/E Multiple | 10.3x - 11.4x | 10.8x |
| Fair Value | HK$ 4.10 - HK$ 4.53 | HK$ 4.32 |
| Upside | -20.2% - -11.8% | -16.0% |
| Benchmarks | - | Full Ticker |
| JD Logistics, Inc. | 261,800.0% | SEHK:2618 |
| S.F. Holding Co., Ltd. | 693,600.0% | SEHK:6936 |
| FedEx Corporation | - | NYSE:FDX |
| Yunda Holding Group Co., Ltd. | 212,000.0% | SZSE:002120 |
| YTO Express Group Co.,Ltd. | 60,023,300.0% | SHSE:600233 |
| J&T Global Express Limited | 151,900.0% | SEHK:1519 |
| - | - | - |
| Select Price / LTM EPS Ratio | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 2618 | 6936 | FDX | 2120 | 600233 | 1519 | |||
| SEHK:2618 | SEHK:6936 | NYSE:FDX | SZSE:002120 | SHSE:600233 | SEHK:1519 | |||
| Historical Net Income Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 11.9% | 51.7% | -9.6% | 14.3% | NM- | ||
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 33.6% | -6.1% | 5.0% | 28.2% | NM- | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 905.8% | 23.5% | -10.8% | -1.7% | 4.9% | 109.1% | ||
| Historical Net Income Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -4.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | -16.8% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 0.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 7.3% | -12.4% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 1.0% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 1.0% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.9x | 8.8x | 7.2x | 4.1x | 6.0x | 12.4x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.4x | 0.7x | 0.5x | 0.4x | 0.7x | 0.6x | ||
| LTM P/E Ratio | 10.4x | 19.8x | 12.1x | 10.3x | 10.8x | 63.1x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark LTM P/E Ratio | 10.3x | 10.8x | 19.8x | |||||
| Historical LTM P/E Ratio | -23.8x | 19.6x | 63.1x | |||||
| Selected P/E Multiple | 39.6x | 41.7x | 43.8x | |||||
| (x) LTM Net Income | 101 | 101 | 101 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,985 | 4,195 | 4,404 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 9,904.3 | 9,904.3 | 9,904.3 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.40 | 0.42 | 0.44 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/HKD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.12 | 3.29 | 3.45 | 5.14 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -39.3% | -36.1% | -32.9% | |||||
| Equity Value | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 2618 | 6936 | FDX | 2120 | 600233 | 1519 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 65,814 | 163,834 | 52,218 | 19,705 | 44,053 | 6,560 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 6,135.7 | 4,966.3 | 239.6 | 2,893.6 | 3,420.2 | 9,904.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 10.73 | 32.99 | 217.94 | 6.81 | 12.88 | 0.66 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.94 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.13 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 11.38 | 35.00 | 217.94 | 6.81 | 12.88 | 5.14 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | HKD | USD | CNY | CNY | HKD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.94 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.13 | |