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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 18.7x - 20.6x | 19.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 8.8x - 9.8x | 9.3x |
| Fair Value | ﷼50.63 - ﷼55.58 | ﷼53.10 |
| Upside | 17.3% - 28.8% | 23.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Arriyadh Development Co. | 4150 | SASE:4150 |
| Retal Urban Development Company | 4322 | SASE:4322 |
| View United Real Estate Development Co. | 9591 | SASE:9591 |
| Enma Al Rawabi Company | 9521 | SASE:9521 |
| Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development Company | 4300 | SASE:4300 |
| Sumou Real Estate Company | 4323 | SASE:4323 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 4150 | 4322 | 9591 | 9521 | 4300 | 4323 | ||
| SASE:4150 | SASE:4322 | SASE:9591 | SASE:9521 | SASE:4300 | SASE:4323 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -3.7% | 48.2% | NM- | 7.4% | 14.4% | 6.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -2.6% | 23.9% | NM- | 17.2% | 23.6% | 29.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -16.5% | 40.1% | 0.0% | 86.0% | 51.6% | 12.1% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 62.3% | 18.7% | 20.2% | 80.2% | 30.4% | 46.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 54.7% | 18.6% | 15.4% | 87.3% | 33.6% | 37.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 48.2% | 17.3% | 21.4% | 86.9% | 36.7% | 27.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 48.2% | 17.3% | 22.6% | 60.4% | 36.7% | 27.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 18.95x | 4.49x | 2.94x | 9.17x | 7.29x | 4.61x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 39.4x | 26.0x | 13.0x | 15.2x | 19.9x | 17.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 53.0x | 27.3x | 13.1x | 17.0x | 20.5x | 17.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.0x | 19.9x | 39.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 15.2x | 26.4x | 39.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 18.7x | 19.6x | 20.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 116 | 116 | 116 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,165 | 2,279 | 2,393 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 178 | 178 | 178 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,344 | 2,458 | 2,572 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 46.87 | 49.15 | 51.43 | ||||
| FX Rate: SAR/SAR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 46.87 | 49.15 | 51.43 | 43.15 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 8.6% | 13.9% | 19.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 4150 | 4322 | 9591 | 9521 | 4300 | 4323 | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,093 | 9,280 | 233 | 1,201 | 27,392 | 1,979 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 341 | 918 | 34 | 37 | 6,725 | 199 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,386 | 329 | 1 | 0 | 2,819 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (54) | (1,772) | (35) | (170) | (11,442) | (20) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (9) | 0 | 0 | (6) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 7,767 | 8,747 | 234 | 1,068 | 25,488 | 2,158 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 233.9 | 499.2 | 33.0 | 40.0 | 1,080.0 | 50.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 33.20 | 17.52 | 7.09 | 26.70 | 23.60 | 43.15 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 33.20 | 17.52 | 7.09 | 26.70 | 23.60 | 43.15 | |
| Trading Currency | SAR | SAR | SAR | SAR | SAR | SAR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |