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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 25.2x - 27.9x | 26.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 24.5x - 27.1x | 25.8x |
| Fair Value | ﷼69.29 - ﷼75.12 | ﷼72.20 |
| Upside | -34.6% - -29.1% | -31.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Jabal Omar Development Company | 4250 | SASE:4250 |
| Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development Company | 4300 | SASE:4300 |
| Knowledge Economic City Company | 4310 | SASE:4310 |
| Emaar The Economic City | 4220 | SASE:4220 |
| Red Sea International Company | 4230 | SASE:4230 |
| Makkah Construction and Development Company | 4100 | SASE:4100 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 4250 | 4300 | 4310 | 4220 | 4230 | 4100 | ||
| SASE:4250 | SASE:4300 | SASE:4310 | SASE:4220 | SASE:4230 | SASE:4100 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 42.2% | 14.4% | NM- | NM- | 12.9% | 10.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 23.6% | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 32.8% | 51.6% | 70.1% | -149.0% | 762.3% | 14.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -114.2% | 30.4% | -61.7% | -70.6% | -7.8% | 10.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 44.3% | 33.6% | -60.5% | 39.4% | -32.1% | 51.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 41.1% | 36.7% | -7.6% | -46.7% | 8.7% | 51.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 41.1% | 36.7% | -7.6% | -46.7% | 8.9% | 51.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 20.51x | 7.07x | 38.24x | 30.11x | 0.68x | 21.04x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 49.9x | 19.3x | -502.1x | -64.4x | 7.6x | 40.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 99.7x | 19.9x | -415.7x | -29.3x | 14.8x | 44.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -502.1x | 7.6x | 49.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -1379.0x | 40.6x | 176.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 25.2x | 26.5x | 27.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 434 | 434 | 434 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 10,942 | 11,518 | 12,094 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 2,768 | 2,768 | 2,768 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 13,710 | 14,286 | 14,862 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 200.0 | 200.0 | 200.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 68.55 | 71.43 | 74.31 | ||||
| FX Rate: SAR/SAR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 68.55 | 71.43 | 74.31 | 106.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -35.3% | -32.6% | -29.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 4250 | 4300 | 4310 | 4220 | 4230 | 4100 | |
| Enterprise Value | 41,019 | 27,392 | 6,223 | 13,181 | 2,136 | 18,432 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 864 | 6,725 | 104 | 252 | 214 | 223 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 141 | 2,819 | 143 | 2,712 | 6 | 2,647 | |
| (-) Debt | (12,109) | (11,442) | (1,444) | (8,108) | (515) | (102) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2) | (6) | (93) | 0 | (474) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 29,914 | 25,488 | 4,933 | 8,037 | 1,368 | 21,200 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,180.0 | 1,080.0 | 339.3 | 523.3 | 30.2 | 200.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 25.35 | 23.60 | 14.54 | 15.36 | 45.25 | 106.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 25.35 | 23.60 | 14.54 | 15.36 | 45.25 | 106.00 | |
| Trading Currency | SAR | SAR | SAR | SAR | SAR | SAR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |