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A.othaim markets

SASE:4001

沙特阿拉伯 / 必需消費品 / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail

綜觀

10 年 DCF 收入退出價

股價

9.20 SAR

公允價值

14.60 SAR

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	8.8% - 7.8%	8.3%
Terminal Revenue Multiple	1.0x - 1.2x	1.1x
Fair Value	﷼13.56 - ﷼15.70	﷼14.60
Upside	47.5% - 70.9%	58.8%

4.7%

Revenue 10y CAGR

9.3%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

30.1%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Revenue Exit

股價

9.20 SAR

公允價值

14.60 SAR

看漲

58.8%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(SAR in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	10,716	18,629	12,138	12,769	14,308	15,205	15,737	16,052	16,373	16,700	17,034
% Growth	5.0%	73.8%	-34.8%	5.2%	12.0%	6.3%	3.5%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	674	1,025	1,090	1,166	1,393	1,512	1,565	1,596	1,628	1,661	1,694
% of Revenue	6.3%	5.5%	9.0%	9.1%	9.7%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

EBITDA		1,025	1,090	1,166	1,393	1,512	1,565	1,596	1,628	1,661	1,694
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(336)	(520)	(550)	(649)	(696)	(720)	(735)	(749)	(764)	(780)

EBIT		689	570	617	745	816	845	861	879	896	914
Pro forma Taxes		(76)	(63)	(68)	(82)	(90)	(93)	(95)	(97)	(99)	(101)
NOPAT	405	613	507	549	663	726	752	767	782	798	814

Capital Expenditures	(592)	(373)	(474)	(430)	(408)	(388)	(402)	(399)	(396)	(399)	(398)
NWC Investment	57	875	(718)	70	170	99	59	35	36	36	37
(+) D&A	219	336	520	550	649	696	720	735	749	764	780

Free Cash Flow	88	1,451	(165)	738	1,073	1,133	1,129	1,137	1,171	1,199	1,232
% Growth			NM	NM	45%	6%	0%	1%	3%	2%	3%

載入錯誤

A.othaim markets

SASE:4001

沙特阿拉伯 / 必需消費品 / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail

10 年 DCF 收入退出價