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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 8.7x - 9.6x | 9.1x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 4.8x - 5.3x | 5.0x |
| Fair Value | $9.14 - $10.89 | $10.02 |
| Upside | 9.7% - 30.6% | 20.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Meliá Hotels International, S.A. | MEL | DB:MEL |
| HBX Group International plc | Q1D | MUN:Q1D |
| Accor SA | ACR | XTRA:ACR |
| Expedia Group, Inc. | E3X1 | DB:E3X1 |
| Dalata Hotel Group plc | DHG | DB:DHG |
| TUI AG | TUIF.F | OTCPK:TUIF.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| MEL | Q1D | ACR | E3X1 | DHG | TUIF.F | ||
| DB:MEL | MUN:Q1D | XTRA:ACR | DB:E3X1 | DB:DHG | OTCPK:TUIF.F | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.7% | NM- | 9.4% | 11.6% | 6.1% | 14.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | 85.2% | 123.8% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.7% | 16.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 0.5% | 27.9% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -15.0% | 30.1% | -3.0% | 2.0% | 11.4% | -21.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 12.2% | 37.3% | 14.3% | 11.4% | 26.1% | 2.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 14.4% | 41.1% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 24.4% | 3.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.3% | 41.1% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 24.4% | 3.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.95x | 7.29x | 2.19x | 1.49x | 3.25x | 0.29x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.6x | 13.0x | 12.3x | 11.1x | 10.7x | 5.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 13.6x | 17.7x | 15.7x | 12.3x | 13.3x | 7.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 12.3x | 13.6x | 17.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -8.7x | -3.8x | 11.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 8.7x | 9.1x | 9.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 908 | 908 | 908 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 7,888 | 8,303 | 8,719 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (3,398) | (3,398) | (3,398) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 4,490 | 4,905 | 5,321 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 507.4 | 507.4 | 507.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 8.85 | 9.67 | 10.49 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/USD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 9.81 | 10.72 | 11.63 | 8.34 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 17.7% | 28.6% | 39.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | MEL | Q1D | ACR | E3X1 | DHG | TUIF.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,393 | 2,356 | 12,587 | 20,500 | 2,120 | 7,212 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 0 | 0 | 1,244 | 6,137 | 40 | 1,659 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 1,583 | 1,608 | 0 | 1,599 | |
| (-) Debt | 0 | 0 | (3,757) | (6,467) | (1,050) | (5,762) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (437) | (1,249) | 0 | (894) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,393 | 2,356 | 11,220 | 20,529 | 1,109 | 3,814 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 220.2 | 247.2 | 240.6 | 127.1 | 211.3 | 507.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 6.33 | 9.53 | 46.63 | 161.49 | 5.25 | 7.52 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.11 | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 6.33 | 9.53 | 46.63 | 145.60 | 5.25 | 8.34 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.11 | 1.00 | 0.90 | |