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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 2.6x - 4.6x | 3.6x |
| Fair Value | $18.74 - $24.39 | $21.45 |
| Upside | 46.2% - 90.3% | 67.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
| Revenue | 5,825,161 | 6,100,000 | 6,400,000 | 6,300,000 | 6,864,000 | 7,104,240 | 7,246,325 | 7,391,251 | 7,539,076 | 7,689,858 | 7,843,655 |
| % Growth | 8.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | -1.6% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 892,708 | 740,000 | 790,000 | 840,000 | 1,169,000 | 1,209,915 | 1,234,113 | 1,258,796 | 1,283,971 | 1,309,651 | 1,335,844 |
| % of Revenue | 15.3% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 17.0% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 | |
| EBITDA | 740,000 | 790,000 | 840,000 | 1,169,000 | 1,209,915 | 1,234,113 | 1,258,796 | 1,283,971 | 1,309,651 | 1,335,844 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (220,000) | (240,000) | (250,000) | (376,000) | (389,160) | (396,943) | (404,882) | (412,980) | (421,239) | (429,664) | |
| EBIT | 520,000 | 550,000 | 590,000 | 793,000 | 820,755 | 837,170 | 853,914 | 870,992 | 888,412 | 906,180 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (145,600) | (154,000) | (165,200) | (222,040) | (229,811) | (234,408) | (239,096) | (243,878) | (248,755) | (253,730) | |
| NOPAT | 462,853 | 374,400 | 396,000 | 424,800 | 570,960 | 590,944 | 602,762 | 614,818 | 627,114 | 639,656 | 652,449 |
| Capital Expenditures | (344,687) | (420,000) | (450,000) | (300,000) | (502,000) | (519,570) | (440,523) | (449,334) | (458,320) | (449,393) | (452,349) |
| NWC Investment | (25,041) | (15,263) | (16,661) | 5,554 | (31,322) | (13,342) | (7,891) | (8,049) | (8,209) | (8,374) | (8,541) |
| (+) D&A | 249,856 | 220,000 | 240,000 | 250,000 | 376,000 | 389,160 | 396,943 | 404,882 | 412,980 | 421,239 | 429,664 |
| Free Cash Flow | 342,981 | 159,137 | 169,339 | 380,354 | 413,638 | 447,192 | 551,292 | 562,317 | 573,564 | 603,129 | 621,223 |
| % Growth | -54% | 6% | 125% | 9% | 8% | 23% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 3% | |