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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 4.3x - 4.7x | 4.5x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 4.2x - 4.6x | 4.4x |
| Fair Value | $12.10 - $13.55 | $12.82 |
| Upside | -8.5% - 2.4% | -3.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Holmen AB (publ) | HOLM A | OM:HOLMA |
| Rottneros AB (publ) | RROS | OM:RROS |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj | RPL | DB:RPL |
| Mercer International Inc. | AEZ | DB:AEZ |
| West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. | WFC | DB:WFC |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) | SVCB.F | OTCPK:SVCB.F |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| HOLM A | RROS | RPL | AEZ | WFC | SVCB.F | |||
| OM:HOLMA | OM:RROS | DB:RPL | DB:AEZ | DB:WFC | OTCPK:SVCB.F | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 6.5% | 2.7% | 0.2% | 4.7% | 10.5% | 1.0% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 5.7% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 4.3% | -16.3% | 3.1% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 0.6% | -1.6% | -1.2% | 2.5% | -4.3% | 10.2% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 16.3% | 7.0% | 12.3% | 5.8% | 16.5% | 17.2% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 17.7% | 5.0% | 9.3% | -10.2% | -0.1% | 12.8% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 11.7% | 1.6% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 14.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 11.7% | 1.6% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 14.8% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.58x | 0.43x | 1.31x | 0.80x | 0.88x | 4.57x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 22.0x | 27.0x | 12.9x | 22.1x | 51.3x | 30.9x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 2.50x | 0.32x | 1.20x | 0.17x | 0.95x | 4.04x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.43x | 0.88x | 2.58x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 4.49x | 5.60x | 5.83x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 4.30x | 4.52x | 4.75x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 22,522 | 22,522 | 22,522 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 96,749 | 101,841 | 106,933 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (11,983) | (11,983) | (11,983) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 84,766 | 89,858 | 94,950 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 702.3 | 702.3 | 702.3 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 120.69 | 127.94 | 135.19 | |||||
| FX Rate: SEK/USD | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 12.02 | 12.74 | 13.46 | 13.23 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -9.1% | -3.7% | 1.8% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | HOLM A | RROS | RPL | AEZ | WFC | SVCB.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 60,709 | 1,162 | 13,384 | 1,637 | 5,413 | 105,266 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 234 | 19 | 893 | 185 | 641 | 1,328 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,707 | 98 | 2,267 | 3 | 0 | 1,272 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,682) | (412) | (3,913) | (1,491) | (229) | (14,583) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (401) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 58,968 | 867 | 12,230 | 334 | 5,825 | 93,283 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 157.7 | 152.6 | 528.7 | 66.8 | 79.6 | 702.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 374.00 | 5.68 | 23.13 | 5.00 | 73.14 | 132.82 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 10.04 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 374.00 | 5.68 | 23.13 | 4.56 | 66.75 | 13.23 | |
| Trading Currency | SEK | SEK | EUR | EUR | EUR | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 10.04 | |