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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | -21.6x - -23.9x | -22.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.5x - 6.0x | 5.7x |
| Fair Value | $1.79 - $2.29 | $2.04 |
| Upside | -34.8% - -16.8% | -25.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation | 4188 | TSE:4188 |
| Nitto Denko Corporation | 6988 | TSE:6988 |
| Ishihara Sangyo Kaisha,Ltd. | 4028 | TSE:4028 |
| artience Co., Ltd. | 4634 | TSE:4634 |
| Asahi Kasei Corporation | 3407 | TSE:3407 |
| Sumitomo Chemical Company, Limited | SOMM.F | OTCPK:SOMM.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 4188 | 6988 | 4028 | 4634 | 3407 | SOMM.F | ||
| TSE:4188 | TSE:6988 | TSE:4028 | TSE:4634 | TSE:3407 | OTCPK:SOMM.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 1.1% | 7.6% | 1.0% | 7.9% | 0.6% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | 8.0% | 12.2% | 16.3% | 12.6% | 1.9% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -32.7% | 36.2% | 38.0% | 31.5% | 33.6% | 24.7% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 12.3% | 20.3% | 11.6% | 7.7% | 13.0% | 5.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 12.7% | 21.7% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 3.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 11.9% | 21.5% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 11.6% | -9.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 11.4% | 24.4% | 12.5% | 9.3% | NA | -2.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.66x | 1.41x | 0.60x | 0.29x | 0.70x | 0.54x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.8x | 5.8x | 4.8x | 3.1x | 5.3x | -23.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.7x | 7.8x | 6.8x | 4.9x | 10.1x | -6.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.1x | 5.3x | 5.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -16.9x | 4.7x | 5.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | -21.6x | -22.8x | -23.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | (58,761) | (58,761) | (58,761) | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,270,187 | 1,337,039 | 1,403,891 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (841,060) | (841,060) | (841,060) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 429,127 | 495,979 | 562,831 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,966.3 | 1,966.3 | 1,966.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 218.24 | 252.24 | 286.24 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/USD | 145.9 | 145.9 | 145.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.50 | 1.73 | 1.96 | 2.75 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -45.6% | -37.1% | -28.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 4188 | 6988 | 4028 | 4634 | 3407 | SOMM.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,940,064 | 1,402,406 | 87,209 | 101,087 | 2,071,946 | 1,630,158 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 336,961 | 359,655 | 23,377 | 62,954 | 363,245 | 305,654 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 386,118 | 8,399 | 14,500 | 68,374 | 191,597 | 501,862 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,146,211) | (443) | (64,275) | (80,739) | (1,248,021) | (1,443,703) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (553,453) | (999) | (90) | (11,611) | (49,137) | (204,873) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 963,479 | 1,769,018 | 60,721 | 140,065 | 1,329,630 | 789,098 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,423.2 | 701.9 | 38.3 | 50.2 | 1,359.1 | 1,966.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 677.00 | 2,520.50 | 1,587.00 | 2,791.00 | 978.30 | 401.31 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 145.93 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 677.00 | 2,520.50 | 1,587.00 | 2,791.00 | 978.30 | 2.75 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 145.93 | |