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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | -102.4x - -113.2x | -107.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 7.0x - 7.7x | 7.3x |
| Fair Value | $6.70 - $7.27 | $6.99 |
| Upside | -29.0% - -22.9% | -26.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| BlueScope Steel Limited | BSL | ASX:BSL |
| Dyno Nobel Limited | DNL | ASX:DNL |
| Ryerson Holding Corporation | RYI | NYSE:RYI |
| IGO Limited | IGO | ASX:IGO |
| Iluka Resources Limited | ILU | ASX:ILU |
| Sims Limited | SMUP.F | OTCPK:SMUP.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| BSL | DNL | RYI | IGO | ILU | SMUP.F | ||
| ASX:BSL | ASX:DNL | NYSE:RYI | ASX:IGO | ASX:ILU | OTCPK:SMUP.F | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -0.5% | 9.8% | -28.9% | NM- | -5.0% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | -8.4% | -6.3% | -57.0% | NM- | -16.3% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -32.2% | 3.6% | -84.9% | 40.0% | -31.6% | -105.3% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 10.9% | 10.2% | 5.0% | -19.0% | 32.4% | 0.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 8.1% | 7.3% | 4.5% | -74.1% | 32.3% | 0.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 7.6% | 7.7% | 0.8% | -70.4% | 24.4% | -1.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.6% | 7.7% | 0.8% | -92.1% | 24.4% | -0.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.60x | 0.88x | 0.33x | 1.16x | 1.07x | 0.31x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.6x | 6.8x | 13.5x | -3.7x | 2.5x | 14.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.7x | 11.4x | 43.8x | -1.3x | 4.4x | -148.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -1.3x | 10.7x | 43.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -13.8x | 17.8x | 222.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | -102.4x | -107.8x | -113.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | (15) | (15) | (15) | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,578 | 1,661 | 1,744 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 393 | 393 | 393 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,971 | 2,054 | 2,137 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 193.0 | 193.0 | 193.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 10.21 | 10.64 | 11.07 | ||||
| FX Rate: AUD/USD | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.48 | 6.75 | 7.03 | 9.44 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -31.4% | -28.5% | -25.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | BSL | DNL | RYI | IGO | ILU | SMUP.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,783 | 4,695 | 1,525 | 797 | 1,255 | 2,478 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 822 | 1,069 | 28 | 291 | 136 | 243 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 143 | 421 | 0 | 1,646 | 454 | 744 | |
| (-) Debt | (735) | (1,955) | (851) | (43) | (291) | (593) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (646) | 1 | (9) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 9,367 | 4,231 | 693 | 2,691 | 1,554 | 2,871 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 438.5 | 1,863.9 | 31.9 | 755.8 | 429.3 | 193.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 21.36 | 2.27 | 21.75 | 3.56 | 3.62 | 14.88 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.58 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 21.36 | 2.27 | 21.75 | 3.56 | 3.62 | 9.44 | |
| Trading Currency | AUD | AUD | USD | AUD | AUD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.58 | |