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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 16.6x - 18.3x | 17.4x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 6.5x - 7.1x | 6.8x |
| Fair Value | $1.97 - $2.16 | $2.06 |
| Upside | 22.9% - 35.0% | 29.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Stanmore Resources Limited | SMR | ASX:SMR |
| Fortescue Ltd | FMG | ASX:FMG |
| Nickel Industries Limited | NIC | ASX:NIC |
| Coronado Global Resources Inc. | CRN | ASX:CRN |
| Perseus Mining Limited | PRU | ASX:PRU |
| South32 Limited | SHTL.F | PINC:SHTL.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| SMR | FMG | NIC | CRN | PRU | SHTL.F | ||
| ASX:SMR | ASX:FMG | ASX:NIC | ASX:CRN | ASX:PRU | PINC:SHTL.F | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 22.6% | 12.6% | -1.0% | NM- | NM- | -43.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 132.2% | -17.3% | -8.0% | NM- | 53.1% | -58.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -65.9% | -38.1% | -50.4% | -179.5% | 16.0% | 350.9% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 20.1% | 53.3% | 21.8% | 8.3% | 31.2% | 13.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 28.2% | 47.5% | 16.2% | 4.9% | 39.8% | 4.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 11.2% | 46.8% | 8.6% | -4.5% | 45.1% | 1.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 11.2% | 36.3% | 8.6% | -4.5% | 44.5% | 8.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.63x | 2.04x | 0.92x | 0.16x | 2.17x | 1.17x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.0x | 4.1x | 5.8x | 4.8x | 3.7x | 7.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 5.6x | 5.6x | 10.6x | -3.5x | 4.9x | 13.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -3.5x | 5.6x | 10.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 4.2x | 6.4x | 20.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 16.6x | 17.4x | 18.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 547 | 547 | 547 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 9,063 | 9,540 | 10,017 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 602 | 602 | 602 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 9,665 | 10,142 | 10,619 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 5,112.3 | 5,112.3 | 5,112.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.89 | 1.98 | 2.08 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.89 | 1.98 | 2.08 | 1.60 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 18.2% | 24.0% | 29.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | SMR | FMG | NIC | CRN | PRU | SHTL.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,555 | 34,023 | 1,682 | 380 | 2,505 | 7,578 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 289 | 3,409 | 211 | 340 | 628 | 1,600 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 25 | 375 | 1,230 | 0 | 67 | 662 | |
| (-) Debt | (672) | (5,439) | (1,055) | (531) | (3) | (1,647) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 27 | (432) | 0 | (205) | (13) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,197 | 32,395 | 1,636 | 189 | 2,992 | 8,180 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 901.4 | 3,074.5 | 4,339.9 | 1,676.5 | 1,365.4 | 5,112.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1.33 | 10.54 | 0.38 | 0.11 | 2.19 | 1.60 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.06 | 16.35 | 0.59 | 0.18 | 3.40 | 1.60 | |
| Trading Currency | AUD | AUD | AUD | AUD | AUD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 1.00 | |