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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 24.5x - 27.1x | 25.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 9.3x - 10.3x | 9.8x |
| Fair Value | $9.58 - $10.90 | $10.24 |
| Upside | 12.7% - 28.3% | 20.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj | UPM | HLSE:UPM |
| Mondi plc | KYC0 | DB:KYC0 |
| The Navigator Company, S.A. | NVG | ENXTLS:NVG |
| Huhtamäki Oyj | HUH1V | HLSE:HUH1V |
| West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. | WFC | DB:WFC |
| Stora Enso Oyj | SEOA.Y | OTCPK:SEOA.Y |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| UPM | KYC0 | NVG | HUH1V | WFC | SEOA.Y | ||
| HLSE:UPM | DB:KYC0 | ENXTLS:NVG | HLSE:HUH1V | DB:WFC | OTCPK:SEOA.Y | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -4.5% | -13.9% | 12.6% | 4.5% | NM- | -17.4% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -8.2% | -11.7% | 18.2% | 6.4% | -70.0% | -34.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.0% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 2220.0% | 791.9% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 12.3% | 11.4% | 16.3% | 8.3% | 16.5% | 7.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.3% | 7.3% | 18.8% | 8.1% | -0.1% | 0.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 10.2% | 7.3% | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.7% | 3.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.2% | 7.3% | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.7% | 3.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.27x | 1.03x | 1.45x | 1.12x | 0.90x | 0.89x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.3x | 8.0x | 5.8x | 8.6x | 8.5x | 10.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.5x | 14.0x | 8.0x | 13.2x | 52.6x | 24.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 8.0x | 13.2x | 52.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 6.1x | 20.3x | 62.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 24.5x | 25.8x | 27.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 330 | 330 | 330 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 8,086 | 8,512 | 8,937 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,063) | (2,063) | (2,063) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 6,023 | 6,449 | 6,874 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 788.6 | 788.6 | 788.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 7.64 | 8.18 | 8.72 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/USD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 8.66 | 9.27 | 9.89 | 8.50 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 2.0% | 9.2% | 16.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | UPM | KYC0 | NVG | HUH1V | WFC | SEOA.Y | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,125 | 7,659 | 3,034 | 4,616 | 5,558 | 7,970 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 893 | 278 | 287 | 317 | 641 | 1,999 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 2,267 | 34 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1,567 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,913) | (2,015) | (1,016) | (1,562) | (229) | (5,779) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (401) | (493) | (0) | (87) | 0 | 150 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 11,971 | 5,463 | 2,304 | 3,287 | 5,970 | 5,907 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 528.7 | 440.5 | 711.2 | 104.8 | 79.6 | 788.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 22.64 | 12.40 | 3.24 | 31.38 | 75.02 | 7.49 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.13 | 0.88 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 22.64 | 12.40 | 3.24 | 31.38 | 66.15 | 8.50 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.13 | 0.88 | |