Seiko Epson Corporation(SEKE.F)之10Y DCF EBITDA Exit

股價

17.25 USD

公允價值

24.72 USD

2.3%

Revenue 10y CAGR

13.5%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

8.7%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit

股價

17.25 USD

公允價值

24.72 USD

看漲

43.3%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(JPY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Mar-24	Mar-25	Mar-26	Mar-27	Mar-28	Mar-29	Mar-30	Mar-31	Mar-32	Mar-33	Mar-34

Revenue	1,313,998	1,350,250	1,375,050	1,390,000	1,455,000	1,490,000	1,519,800	1,550,196	1,581,200	1,612,824	1,645,080
% Growth	-1.2%	2.8%	1.8%	1.1%	4.7%	2.4%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	115,356	142,800	156,400	167,700	206,000	215,000	219,300	223,686	228,160	232,723	237,377
% of Revenue	8.8%	10.6%	11.4%	12.1%	14.2%	14.4%	14.4%	14.4%	14.4%	14.4%	14.4%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(JPY in millions)		Mar-25	Mar-26	Mar-27	Mar-28	Mar-29	Mar-30	Mar-31	Mar-32	Mar-33	Mar-34

EBITDA		142,800	156,400	167,700	206,000	215,000	219,300	223,686	228,160	232,723	237,377
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(68,300)	(66,400)	(65,700)	(97,000)	(99,000)	(100,980)	(103,000)	(105,060)	(107,161)	(109,304)

EBIT		74,500	90,000	102,000	109,000	116,000	118,320	120,686	123,100	125,562	128,073
Pro forma Taxes		(16,390)	(19,800)	(22,440)	(23,980)	(25,520)	(26,030)	(26,551)	(27,082)	(27,624)	(28,176)
NOPAT	49,055	58,110	70,200	79,560	85,020	90,480	92,290	94,135	96,018	97,938	99,897

Capital Expenditures	(49,570)	(72,500)	(74,000)	(74,500)	(75,000)	(76,000)	(75,167)	(75,389)	(75,519)	(75,358)	(75,422)
NWC Investment	3,297	(7,318)	(5,006)	(3,018)	(13,120)	(7,065)	(6,015)	(6,136)	(6,258)	(6,383)	(6,511)
(+) D&A	52,465	68,300	66,400	65,700	97,000	99,000	100,980	103,000	105,060	107,161	109,304

Free Cash Flow	55,247	46,592	57,594	67,742	93,900	106,415	112,088	115,611	119,301	123,358	127,268
% Growth		-16%	24%	18%	39%	13%	5%	3%	3%	3%	3%

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