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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.1x - 5.6x | 5.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.6x - 5.1x | 4.9x |
| Fair Value | $12.38 - $13.68 | $13.03 |
| Upside | 5.2% - 16.2% | 10.7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | IAG | LSE:IAG |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG | 0H4A | LSE:0H4A |
| Jet2 plc | JET2 | AIM:JET2 |
| Cathay Pacific Airways Limited | CPCA.F | OTCPK:CPCA.F |
| easyJet plc | EZJ | LSE:EZJ |
| Ryanair Holdings plc | RYAO.F | OTCPK:RYAO.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| IAG | 0H4A | JET2 | CPCA.F | EZJ | RYAO.F | ||
| LSE:IAG | LSE:0H4A | AIM:JET2 | OTCPK:CPCA.F | LSE:EZJ | OTCPK:RYAO.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 6.0% | -2.6% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 4.5% | 13.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 193.9% | NM- | 48.4% | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 24.7% | -19.1% | 6.8% | 2.0% | 20.6% | -11.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -9.4% | 1.0% | -6.8% | 12.8% | -13.5% | 11.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 15.1% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 21.6% | 8.9% | 21.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 17.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 20.0% | 9.4% | 22.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 17.2% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 20.0% | 9.4% | 20.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.66x | 0.33x | 0.08x | 0.94x | 0.36x | 1.52x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.8x | 3.9x | 0.9x | 4.7x | 3.8x | 7.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 4.6x | 9.7x | 1.1x | 7.4x | 5.6x | 12.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.9x | 3.8x | 4.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -101.5x | 7.5x | 184.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.1x | 5.3x | 5.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 2,802 | 2,802 | 2,802 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 14,242 | 14,992 | 15,741 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 51 | 51 | 51 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 14,293 | 15,043 | 15,793 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,391.7 | 1,391.7 | 1,391.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 10.27 | 10.81 | 11.35 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/USD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 11.70 | 12.32 | 12.93 | 11.77 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -0.6% | 4.6% | 9.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | IAG | 0H4A | JET2 | CPCA.F | EZJ | RYAO.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 21,102 | 12,358 | 585 | 109,658 | 3,321 | 14,324 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 9,799 | 8,488 | 3,596 | 10,534 | 3,461 | 2,751 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 234 | 884 | 2 | 17,241 | 51 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (17,345) | (14,232) | (1,335) | (68,475) | (3,315) | (2,700) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (6) | (52) | 0 | (7) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 13,784 | 7,446 | 2,849 | 68,951 | 3,518 | 14,376 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,748.2 | 1,198.3 | 214.7 | 7,280.9 | 750.9 | 1,391.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2.90 | 6.21 | 13.27 | 9.47 | 4.69 | 10.33 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.76 | 1.00 | 0.88 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.49 | 6.21 | 13.27 | 1.22 | 4.69 | 11.77 | |
| Trading Currency | GBP | EUR | GBP | USD | GBP | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.76 | 1.00 | 0.88 | |