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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8.9x - 9.9x | 9.4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 11.7x - 12.9x | 12.3x |
| Fair Value | $10.79 - $12.18 | $11.48 |
| Upside | -3.3% - 9.1% | 2.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| AMS Public Transport Holdings Limited | 77 | SEHK:77 |
| Transport International Holdings Limited | 62 | SEHK:62 |
| Mobico Group Plc | MCG | LSE:MCG |
| Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited | 306 | SEHK:306 |
| National United Resources Holdings Limited | 254 | SEHK:254 |
| MTR Corporation Limited | MTCP.Y | OTCPK:MTCP.Y |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 77 | 62 | MCG | 306 | 254 | MTCP.Y | ||
| SEHK:77 | SEHK:62 | LSE:MCG | SEHK:306 | SEHK:254 | OTCPK:MTCP.Y | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 19.4% | 3.4% | -3.2% | 4.0% | -1.3% | 8.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 74.6% | 13.5% | 18.3% | 86.7% | 5.3% | 11.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 7.1% | 16.9% | 12.5% | 29.0% | NM | 78.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 5.4% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 34.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 10.8% | 16.3% | 9.7% | 15.2% | -59.2% | 26.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 10.9% | 18.3% | 10.1% | 16.2% | 22.7% | 44.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.9% | 18.3% | 10.1% | 16.2% | 42.5% | 44.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.62x | 0.56x | 0.43x | 0.97x | 1.98x | 3.58x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.6x | 3.0x | 4.2x | 6.0x | 4.6x | 8.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 6.7x | 14.6x | 10.1x | 13.3x | 9.5x | 10.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.0x | 4.6x | 6.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.0x | 14.8x | 19.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.9x | 9.4x | 9.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 26,707 | 26,707 | 26,707 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 238,537 | 251,091 | 263,646 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (41,249) | (41,249) | (41,249) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 197,288 | 209,842 | 222,397 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,219.3 | 2,219.3 | 2,219.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 88.90 | 94.55 | 100.21 | ||||
| FX Rate: HKD/USD | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 11.33 | 12.05 | 12.77 | 11.16 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 1.5% | 7.9% | 14.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 77 | 62 | MCG | 306 | 254 | MTCP.Y | |
| Enterprise Value | 255 | 4,560 | 1,465 | 2,464 | 198 | 235,661 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 68 | 1,691 | 245 | 437 | 153 | 22,229 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 2,637 | 32 | 118 | 0 | 14,845 | |
| (-) Debt | (201) | (4,218) | (1,478) | (1,757) | (228) | (77,815) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (36) | (94) | 40 | (508) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 122 | 4,670 | 227 | 1,168 | 162 | 194,412 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 271.9 | 525.9 | 610.3 | 476.8 | 4,387.6 | 2,219.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.45 | 8.88 | 0.37 | 2.45 | 0.04 | 87.60 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.85 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.45 | 8.88 | 0.37 | 2.45 | 0.04 | 11.16 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | HKD | GBP | HKD | HKD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.85 | |