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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1.1x - 1.2x | 1.1x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1.0x - 1.1x | 1.0x |
| Fair Value | $11.41 - $13.26 | $12.33 |
| Upside | -11.2% - 3.2% | -4.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Suntory Beverage & Food Limited | 2587 | TSE:2587 |
| Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. | 2502 | TSE:2502 |
| Sapporo Holdings Limited | 2501 | TSE:2501 |
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | KDP | NasdaqGS:KDP |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited | 600600 | SHSE:600600 |
| Kirin Holdings Company, Limited | KNBW.F | OTCPK:KNBW.F |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 2587 | 2502 | 2501 | KDP | 600600 | KNBW.F | |||
| TSE:2587 | TSE:2502 | TSE:2501 | NasdaqGS:KDP | SHSE:600600 | OTCPK:KNBW.F | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.5% | 7.1% | 1.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 10.2% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.7% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 6.6% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 3.6% | -6.2% | 9.6% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.4% | 8.6% | 1.9% | 22.8% | 10.4% | 8.6% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.2% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 21.7% | 11.5% | 8.6% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 9.4% | 9.2% | 2.0% | 22.1% | 12.9% | 8.1% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.4% | 9.2% | 2.0% | 22.1% | 14.1% | 8.1% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.88x | 1.33x | 1.04x | 4.01x | 1.89x | 1.09x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.3x | 14.5x | 53.2x | 18.1x | 13.4x | 13.4x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.90x | 1.00x | 1.17x | 2.96x | 2.76x | 0.72x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.88x | 1.33x | 4.01x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.91x | 0.98x | 1.22x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.08x | 1.14x | 1.20x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 2,338,385 | 2,338,385 | 2,338,385 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,536,166 | 2,669,649 | 2,803,131 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (874,936) | (874,936) | (874,936) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,661,230 | 1,794,713 | 1,928,195 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 947.7 | 947.7 | 947.7 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 1,752.97 | 1,893.82 | 2,034.67 | |||||
| FX Rate: JPY/USD | 148.4 | 148.4 | 148.4 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 11.82 | 12.76 | 13.71 | 12.85 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -8.1% | -0.7% | 6.7% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 2587 | 2502 | 2501 | KDP | 600600 | KNBW.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,477,686 | 3,914,069 | 554,573 | 61,598 | 58,312 | 2,681,645 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 165,051 | 83,961 | 24,140 | 510 | 25,183 | 118,617 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 14,775 | 214,703 | 281,839 | 1,632 | 2,835 | 216,205 | |
| (-) Debt | (27,216) | (1,279,176) | (236,584) | (18,330) | (109) | (857,569) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (105,690) | (5,250) | (1,127) | 0 | (875) | (352,189) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,524,606 | 2,928,307 | 622,841 | 45,410 | 85,346 | 1,806,709 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 309.0 | 1,502.9 | 77.9 | 1,356.8 | 1,145.6 | 947.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 4,934.00 | 1,948.50 | 7,993.00 | 33.47 | 74.50 | 1,906.48 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 148.36 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 4,934.00 | 1,948.50 | 7,993.00 | 33.47 | 74.50 | 12.85 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | USD | CNY | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 148.36 | |