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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8.5x - 9.4x | 9.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.8x - 8.6x | 8.2x |
| Fair Value | $11.61 - $13.48 | $12.55 |
| Upside | -9.7% - 4.9% | -2.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Suntory Beverage & Food Limited | 2587 | TSE:2587 |
| Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. | 2502 | TSE:2502 |
| Sapporo Holdings Limited | 2501 | TSE:2501 |
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | KDP | NasdaqGS:KDP |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited | 600600 | SHSE:600600 |
| Kirin Holdings Company, Limited | KNBW.F | OTCPK:KNBW.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 2587 | 2502 | 2501 | KDP | 600600 | KNBW.F | ||
| TSE:2587 | TSE:2502 | TSE:2501 | NasdaqGS:KDP | SHSE:600600 | OTCPK:KNBW.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 6.3% | 6.1% | -3.8% | 6.5% | 16.7% | 4.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 9.4% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 17.0% | 7.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 16.8% | 7.1% | -9.4% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 5.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 13.8% | 14.3% | 6.8% | 28.0% | 13.7% | 12.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 12.8% | 14.4% | 7.0% | 26.6% | 14.5% | 12.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 14.0% | 14.5% | 6.2% | 26.9% | 15.9% | 12.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.0% | 14.5% | 6.2% | 26.9% | 17.4% | 12.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.88x | 1.33x | 1.04x | 4.01x | 1.89x | 1.09x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.3x | 9.2x | 16.8x | 14.9x | 10.9x | 8.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.3x | 14.5x | 53.2x | 18.1x | 13.4x | 13.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.3x | 10.9x | 16.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.4x | 8.7x | 9.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.5x | 9.0x | 9.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 286,131 | 286,131 | 286,131 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,436,218 | 2,564,440 | 2,692,662 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (874,936) | (874,936) | (874,936) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,561,282 | 1,689,504 | 1,817,726 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 947.7 | 947.7 | 947.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1,647.50 | 1,782.80 | 1,918.10 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/USD | 148.4 | 148.4 | 148.4 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 11.10 | 12.02 | 12.93 | 12.85 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -13.6% | -6.5% | 0.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 2587 | 2502 | 2501 | KDP | 600600 | KNBW.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,477,686 | 3,914,069 | 554,573 | 61,598 | 58,312 | 2,681,645 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 165,051 | 83,961 | 24,140 | 510 | 25,183 | 118,617 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 14,775 | 214,703 | 281,839 | 1,632 | 2,835 | 216,205 | |
| (-) Debt | (27,216) | (1,279,176) | (236,584) | (18,330) | (109) | (857,569) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (105,690) | (5,250) | (1,127) | 0 | (875) | (352,189) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,524,606 | 2,928,307 | 622,841 | 45,410 | 85,346 | 1,806,709 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 309.0 | 1,502.9 | 77.9 | 1,356.8 | 1,145.6 | 947.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 4,934.00 | 1,948.50 | 7,993.00 | 33.47 | 74.50 | 1,906.48 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 148.36 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 4,934.00 | 1,948.50 | 7,993.00 | 33.47 | 74.50 | 12.85 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | USD | CNY | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 148.36 | |