Kirin Holdings Co Ltd

OTCPK:KNBWF

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股息

10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價

股價

12.85 USD

公允價值

14.54 USD

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	8.3% - 7.2%	7.8%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple	7.8x - 9.8x	8.8x
Fair Value	$12.43 - $16.82	$14.54
Upside	-3.3% - 30.9%	13.2%

1.9%

Revenue 10y CAGR

14.5%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

21.5%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit

股價

12.85 USD

公允價值

14.54 USD

看漲

13.2%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(JPY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	2,338,385	2,418,400	2,444,534	2,509,200	2,519,195	2,569,037	2,620,418	2,672,826	2,726,283	2,780,808	2,836,424
% Growth	9.6%	3.4%	1.1%	2.6%	0.4%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	286,131	314,900	330,175	353,000	371,393	384,043	391,724	399,558	407,550	415,700	424,015
% of Revenue	12.2%	13.0%	13.5%	14.1%	14.7%	14.9%	14.9%	14.9%	14.9%	14.9%	14.9%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(JPY in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

EBITDA		314,900	330,175	353,000	371,393	384,043	391,724	399,558	407,550	415,700	424,015
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(119,900)	(111,825)	(117,900)	(118,893)	(115,743)	(118,058)	(120,419)	(122,827)	(125,284)	(127,790)

EBIT		195,000	218,350	235,100	252,500	268,300	273,666	279,139	284,722	290,417	296,225
Pro forma Taxes		(54,600)	(61,138)	(65,828)	(70,700)	(75,124)	(76,626)	(78,159)	(79,722)	(81,317)	(82,943)
NOPAT	137,109	140,400	157,212	169,272	181,800	193,176	197,040	200,980	205,000	209,100	213,282

Capital Expenditures	(180,584)	(136,200)	(124,000)	(120,000)	(148,500)	(148,500)	(139,000)	(141,780)	(143,093)	(141,291)	(142,055)
NWC Investment	(24,809)	(9,731)	(3,178)	(7,864)	(1,216)	(6,062)	(6,249)	(6,374)	(6,501)	(6,631)	(6,764)
(+) D&A	95,702	119,900	111,825	117,900	118,893	115,743	118,058	120,419	122,827	125,284	127,790

Free Cash Flow	27,418	114,369	141,859	159,308	150,977	154,357	169,849	173,246	178,233	186,461	192,253
% Growth		317%	24%	12%	-5%	2%	10%	2%	3%	5%	3%

載入錯誤

Kirin Holdings Co Ltd

OTCPK:KNBWF

日本 / 必需消費品 / 飲品

10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價