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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 3.7x - 4.1x | 3.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.3x - 3.7x | 3.5x |
| Fair Value | $6.15 - $6.82 | $6.48 |
| Upside | 15.1% - 27.7% | 21.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| ERAMET S.A. | 0MGV | LSE:0MGV |
| Rio Tinto Group | RIO | LSE:RIO |
| Iluka Resources Limited | ILKA.F | OTCPK:ILKA.F |
| The Chemours Company | 0HWG | LSE:0HWG |
| Tronox Holdings plc | T5X | DB:T5X |
| Kenmare Resources plc | KMRP.F | OTCPK:KMRP.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 0MGV | RIO | ILKA.F | 0HWG | T5X | KMRP.F | ||
| LSE:0MGV | LSE:RIO | OTCPK:ILKA.F | LSE:0HWG | DB:T5X | OTCPK:KMRP.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -12.5% | 0.0% | -1.5% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 11.4% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -34.5% | -17.5% | -8.7% | -9.7% | -16.9% | -9.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -23.3% | -2.0% | -17.4% | -24.3% | 9.5% | -28.7% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 20.3% | 43.3% | 46.4% | 15.1% | 20.8% | 44.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 11.2% | 36.0% | 47.2% | 16.1% | 16.2% | 48.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 9.5% | 35.5% | 43.0% | 12.8% | 16.4% | 37.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.5% | 35.5% | 43.0% | 12.8% | 16.4% | 37.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.93x | 1.95x | 1.09x | 0.94x | 1.29x | 1.18x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.8x | 5.5x | 2.5x | 7.3x | 7.8x | 3.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 57.4x | 7.5x | 4.5x | 12.4x | 18.0x | 5.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.5x | 7.3x | 9.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.5x | 3.1x | 6.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.7x | 3.9x | 4.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 157 | 157 | 157 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 587 | 618 | 649 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (23) | (23) | (23) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 565 | 596 | 626 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 89.2 | 89.2 | 89.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 6.33 | 6.67 | 7.02 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.33 | 6.67 | 7.02 | 5.34 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 18.5% | 25.0% | 31.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 0MGV | RIO | ILKA.F | 0HWG | T5X | KMRP.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,827 | 100,820 | 1,678 | 5,440 | 3,953 | 499 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 929 | 8,865 | 136 | 713 | 151 | 57 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 534 | 5,355 | 454 | 152 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,224) | (14,222) | (291) | (4,355) | (2,990) | (79) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (698) | (2,719) | 0 | (1) | (30) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,368 | 98,099 | 1,976 | 1,949 | 1,084 | 476 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 28.5 | 1,624.6 | 525.7 | 149.4 | 157.9 | 89.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 48.02 | 60.38 | 3.76 | 13.05 | 6.86 | 5.34 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.31 | 1.57 | 1.00 | 1.11 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 48.02 | 46.02 | 2.39 | 13.05 | 6.20 | 5.34 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | GBP | USD | USD | EUR | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.31 | 1.57 | 1.00 | 1.11 | 1.00 | |