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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 46.5x - 51.3x | 48.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.5x - 4.9x | 4.7x |
| Fair Value | $7.42 - $9.53 | $8.47 |
| Upside | -23.9% - -2.3% | -13.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Canfor Corporation | CFP | TSX:CFP |
| GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. | GFP | TSX:GFP |
| Canfor Pulp Products Inc. | CFX | TSX:CFX |
| Conifex Timber Inc. | CFF | TSX:CFF |
| Stella-Jones Inc. | SJ | TSX:SJ |
| Interfor Corporation | IFSP.F | PINC:IFSP.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| CFP | GFP | CFX | CFF | SJ | IFSP.F | ||
| TSX:CFP | TSX:GFP | TSX:CFX | TSX:CFF | TSX:SJ | PINC:IFSP.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | -8.7% | NM- | 15.6% | -20.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 15.3% | -31.2% | NM- | 17.0% | -71.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -23.5% | 173.2% | 181.3% | 44.3% | 3.4% | -52.7% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 13.7% | -0.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 14.4% | 17.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -2.5% | -7.6% | -5.2% | -19.7% | 16.8% | 1.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -3.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | -12.1% | 16.6% | 1.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -3.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | -12.1% | 16.6% | 1.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.42x | 0.29x | 0.17x | 0.55x | 1.56x | 0.54x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -13.0x | 5.2x | 3.6x | -4.5x | 9.4x | 54.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -3.9x | 421.9x | -6.4x | -2.7x | 10.4x | -9.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -13.0x | 3.6x | 9.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.0x | 5.0x | 54.3x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 46.5x | 48.9x | 51.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 30 | 30 | 30 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,403 | 1,477 | 1,550 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (892) | (892) | (892) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 510 | 584 | 658 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 51.5 | 51.5 | 51.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 9.92 | 11.35 | 12.79 | ||||
| FX Rate: CAD/USD | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 7.18 | 8.22 | 9.26 | 9.75 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -26.3% | -15.7% | -5.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | CFP | GFP | CFX | CFF | SJ | IFSP.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,204 | 82 | 127 | 70 | 5,372 | 1,585 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 259 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 50 | 43 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 117 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 21 | 15 | |
| (-) Debt | (704) | (22) | (100) | (77) | (1,703) | (951) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (272) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,605 | 90 | 42 | 12 | 3,740 | 693 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 118.2 | 22.6 | 65.2 | 40.8 | 55.6 | 51.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 13.58 | 3.97 | 0.65 | 0.30 | 67.24 | 13.46 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.38 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 13.58 | 3.97 | 0.65 | 0.30 | 67.24 | 9.75 | |
| Trading Currency | CAD | CAD | CAD | CAD | CAD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.38 | |