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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 22.9x - 25.3x | 24.1x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 5.3x - 5.8x | 5.5x |
| Fair Value | $3.13 - $3.28 | $3.21 |
| Upside | -27.7% - -24.2% | -26.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Grupo TMM, S.A.B. | GTMA.Y | OTCPK:GTMA.Y |
| MingZhu Logistics Holdings Limited | YGMZ | NasdaqCM:YGMZ |
| Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | YMM | NYSE:YMM |
| Guangshen Railway Company Limited | GNGY.F | OTCPK:GNGY.F |
| Pony Group Inc. | PNYG | OTCPK:PNYG |
| DiDi Global Inc. | DIDI.Y | OTCPK:DIDI.Y |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| GTMA.Y | YGMZ | YMM | GNGY.F | PNYG | DIDI.Y | ||
| OTCPK:GTMA.Y | NasdaqCM:YGMZ | NYSE:YMM | OTCPK:GNGY.F | OTCPK:PNYG | OTCPK:DIDI.Y | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | -26.8% | NM- | 5.6% | NM- | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | -15.6% | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3488.9% | -14139.5% | 131.5% | -21.9% | -10.3% | 168.4% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -0.9% | 2.7% | -39.5% | -3.2% | -115.4% | -11.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 1.0% | -0.2% | 12.7% | 5.6% | -83.3% | -1.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 11.5% | 1.0% | 22.0% | 5.4% | -167.4% | 0.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 13.5% | -16.8% | 22.0% | 4.7% | -167.4% | 0.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.18x | 2.10x | 5.46x | 0.64x | 30.58x | 0.43x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.5x | -12.7x | 24.1x | 5.4x | NA | 20.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.7x | -12.5x | 24.8x | 13.6x | -18.3x | 46.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -18.3x | 8.7x | 24.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -22.5x | -2.2x | 46.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 22.9x | 24.1x | 25.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 1,942 | 1,942 | 1,942 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 44,538 | 46,882 | 49,226 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 56,780 | 56,780 | 56,780 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 101,317 | 103,662 | 106,006 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,656.4 | 4,656.4 | 4,656.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 21.76 | 22.26 | 22.77 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/USD | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.01 | 3.08 | 3.15 | 4.33 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -30.4% | -28.8% | -27.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | GTMA.Y | YGMZ | YMM | GNGY.F | PNYG | DIDI.Y | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,289 | 115 | 57,720 | 15,199 | 3 | 88,895 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 0 | 1 | 20,813 | 2,399 | 0 | 51,842 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 9,876 | 811 | 0 | 17,713 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,502) | (20) | (65) | (1,896) | (1) | (12,658) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (458) | 39 | 0 | (118) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 787 | 96 | 87,886 | 16,552 | 2 | 145,675 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 34.9 | 76.7 | 1,045.9 | 10,908.8 | 11.5 | 4,656.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 22.55 | 1.25 | 84.03 | 1.52 | 0.20 | 31.29 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 19.61 | 1.00 | 7.23 | 7.23 | 1.00 | 7.23 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1.15 | 1.25 | 11.63 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 4.33 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 19.61 | 1.00 | 7.23 | 7.23 | 1.00 | 7.23 | |