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IDBH.F 16000.0%BTSG.Y -81.3%CHNE.Y 34.6%

觀察名單觀點 ProPicks AI 篩選器數據瀏覽圖表已儲存工作 WarrenAI

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OTCPK:DIDIY

中國 / 工業 / 陸運

10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價

股價

4.16 USD

公允價值

6.04 USD

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	13.0% - 12.0%	12.5%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple	5.3x - 7.3x	6.3x
Fair Value	$5.67 - $6.43	$6.04
Upside	36.3% - 54.6%	45.1%

5.0%

Revenue 10y CAGR

7.3%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

36.2%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit

股價

4.16 USD

公允價值

6.04 USD

看漲

45.1%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(CNY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	206,799	224,952	244,017	262,324	282,114	302,000	312,570	318,821	325,198	331,702	338,336
% Growth	7.5%	8.8%	8.5%	7.5%	7.5%	7.0%	3.5%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	4,448	10,456	14,776	18,680	20,582	24,300	25,151	25,654	26,167	26,690	27,224
% of Revenue	2.2%	4.6%	6.1%	7.1%	7.3%	8.0%	8.0%	8.0%	8.0%	8.0%	8.0%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

EBITDA		10,456	14,776	18,680	20,582	24,300	25,151	25,654	26,167	26,690	27,224
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(5,349)	(4,784)	(4,361)	(2,019)	(2,161)	(2,237)	(2,282)	(2,327)	(2,374)	(2,421)

EBIT		5,107	9,992	14,319	18,563	22,139	22,914	23,372	23,839	24,316	24,802
Pro forma Taxes		(715)	(1,399)	(2,005)	(2,599)	(3,099)	(3,208)	(3,272)	(3,337)	(3,404)	(3,472)
NOPAT	1,670	4,392	8,593	12,314	15,964	19,039	19,706	20,100	20,502	20,912	21,330

Capital Expenditures	(3,608)	(2,531)	(2,700)	(2,558)	(3,123)	(3,300)	(2,993)	(3,053)	(3,114)	(3,054)	(3,074)
NWC Investment	379	477	501	481	520	522	278	164	168	171	174
(+) D&A	2,505	5,349	4,784	4,361	2,019	2,161	2,237	2,282	2,327	2,374	2,421

Free Cash Flow	947	7,687	11,178	14,598	15,381	18,423	19,227	19,492	19,882	20,403	20,852
% Growth		712%	45%	31%	5%	20%	4%	1%	2%	3%	2%

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