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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 9.6x - 10.6x | 10.1x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 12.4x - 13.7x | 13.0x |
| Fair Value | $53.83 - $61.34 | $57.59 |
| Upside | 44.9% - 65.1% | 55.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| TAURON Polska Energia S.A. | TPE | WSE:TPE |
| EC Bedzin S.A. | BDZ | WSE:BDZ |
| Energa SA | ENG | WSE:ENG |
| ZE PAK SA | ZEP | WSE:ZEP |
| ENEA S.A. | ENA | WSE:ENA |
| CEZ, a. s. | CZAV.F | OTCPK:CZAV.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| TPE | BDZ | ENG | ZEP | ENA | CZAV.F | ||
| WSE:TPE | WSE:BDZ | WSE:ENG | WSE:ZEP | WSE:ENA | OTCPK:CZAV.F | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 23.8% | NM- | 12.9% | NM- | 24.0% | 25.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 22.2% | NM- | 26.9% | NM- | 38.7% | 45.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 28.5% | 63.2% | -17.6% | 1110.8% | 13.3% | 7.3% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.5% | -51.6% | 8.0% | 1.9% | 9.4% | 23.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 6.4% | -62.1% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 10.6% | 26.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 11.7% | -81.0% | 6.1% | 16.2% | 16.9% | 28.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 11.7% | -48.9% | 6.1% | 15.5% | 16.9% | 28.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.65x | 0.40x | 0.61x | 0.17x | 0.35x | 2.44x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.7x | -0.9x | 5.3x | 1.0x | 1.6x | 6.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 5.6x | -0.8x | 10.1x | 1.1x | 2.1x | 8.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -0.8x | 2.1x | 10.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 6.4x | 8.7x | 17.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 9.6x | 10.1x | 10.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 95,679 | 95,679 | 95,679 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 918,536 | 966,880 | 1,015,224 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (206,957) | (206,957) | (206,957) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 711,579 | 759,923 | 808,267 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 536.8 | 536.8 | 536.8 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1,325.57 | 1,415.63 | 1,505.69 | ||||
| FX Rate: CZK/USD | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 60.32 | 64.42 | 68.52 | 37.15 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 62.4% | 73.4% | 84.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | TPE | BDZ | ENG | ZEP | ENA | CZAV.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 22,840 | 61 | 13,865 | (406) | 10,979 | 645,205 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 596 | 16 | 2,027 | 566 | 4,458 | 43,407 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 190 | 0 | 110 | 800 | 151 | 7,425 | |
| (-) Debt | (14,615) | (0) | (10,391) | (33) | (7,578) | (246,149) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (41) | 0 | (891) | (2) | (1,023) | (11,640) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 8,970 | 77 | 4,720 | 924 | 6,987 | 438,248 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,752.5 | 3.0 | 414.1 | 50.8 | 529.7 | 536.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5.12 | 25.80 | 11.40 | 18.18 | 13.19 | 816.39 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 21.98 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.12 | 25.80 | 11.40 | 18.18 | 13.19 | 37.15 | |
| Trading Currency | PLN | PLN | PLN | PLN | PLN | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 21.98 | |