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10 年 DCF 增長退出價

股價

77.62 USD

公允價值

147.61 USD

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	9.3% - 8.3%	8.8%
Perpetuity Growth Rate	0.2% - 1.3%	0.8%
Fair Value	$132.82 - $166.48	$147.61
Upside	71.1% - 114.5%	90.2%

2.2%

Revenue 10y CAGR

12.4%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

3.8%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Gordon Growth Exit

股價

77.62 USD

公允價值

147.61 USD

看漲

90.2%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(EUR in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	39,719	39,721	40,793	42,194	43,137	44,707	45,601	46,513	47,443	48,392	49,360
% Growth	-4.1%	0.0%	2.7%	3.4%	2.2%	3.6%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	4,050	4,754	5,253	5,611	5,389	5,484	5,594	5,706	5,820	5,936	6,055
% of Revenue	10.2%	12.0%	12.9%	13.3%	12.5%	12.3%	12.3%	12.3%	12.3%	12.3%	12.3%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(EUR in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34	Terminal

EBITDA		4,754	5,253	5,611	5,389	5,484	5,594	5,706	5,820	5,936	6,055	6,055
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(2,035)	(2,128)	(2,080)	(1,919)	(1,941)	(1,980)	(2,019)	(2,060)	(2,101)	(2,143)	(2,350)

EBIT		2,720	3,125	3,532	3,470	3,543	3,614	3,686	3,760	3,835	3,912	3,705
Pro forma Taxes		(625)	(719)	(812)	(798)	(815)	(831)	(848)	(865)	(882)	(900)	(852)
NOPAT	1,726	2,094	2,406	2,719	2,672	2,728	2,783	2,838	2,895	2,953	3,012	2,853

Capital Expenditures	(1,938)	(2,338)	(2,425)	(2,501)	(2,439)	(2,490)	(2,476)	(2,468)	(2,478)	(2,474)	(2,473)	(2,473)
NWC Investment	181	(0)	(114)	(149)	(100)	(167)	(95)	(97)	(99)	(101)	(103)	(39)
(+) D&A	1,808	2,035	2,128	2,080	1,919	1,941	1,980	2,019	2,060	2,101	2,143	2,350

Free Cash Flow	1,778	1,791	1,995	2,149	2,052	2,012	2,191	2,292	2,378	2,479	2,579	2,690
% Growth		1%	11%	8%	-4%	-2%	9%	5%	4%	4%	4%	4%

載入錯誤

Continental Aktiengesellschaft

PINC:CTTAF

德國 / 非必需消費品 / 汽車零件

10 年 DCF 增長退出價