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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 28.7x - 31.7x | 30.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 32.3x - 35.7x | 34.0x |
| Fair Value | $12.20 - $22.62 | $17.41 |
| Upside | -21.8% - 44.9% | 11.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| JACCS Co., Ltd. | 8584 | TSE:8584 |
| Aiful Corporation | 8515 | TSE:8515 |
| J Trust Co., Ltd. | 8508 | TSE:8508 |
| Acom Co., Ltd. | 8572 | TSE:8572 |
| Marui Group Co., Ltd. | 8252 | TSE:8252 |
| Credit Saison Co., Ltd. | CSAS.Y | OTCPK:CSAS.Y |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 8584 | 8515 | 8508 | 8572 | 8252 | CSAS.Y | ||
| TSE:8584 | TSE:8515 | TSE:8508 | TSE:8572 | TSE:8252 | OTCPK:CSAS.Y | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 7.3% | 45.3% | NM- | -3.7% | 2.9% | 16.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -0.4% | 27.6% | 7.6% | 19.6% | 7.1% | 16.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -19.1% | 72.3% | 398.9% | -24.4% | 12.7% | 26.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 21.5% | 14.4% | 11.6% | 28.5% | 20.5% | 20.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 24.1% | 15.3% | 1.8% | 32.3% | 22.7% | 21.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 19.3% | 16.1% | 8.8% | 20.8% | 23.2% | 22.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 18.0% | 22.7% | 10.5% | 22.4% | NA | 22.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 15.52x | 4.79x | 0.08x | 4.37x | 4.62x | 7.01x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 86.3x | 27.5x | 0.8x | 19.6x | 19.2x | 30.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 127.8x | 32.6x | 1.1x | 19.9x | 25.1x | 43.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.8x | 19.6x | 86.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 30.7x | 35.7x | 42.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 28.7x | 30.2x | 31.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 112,322 | 112,322 | 112,322 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,219,879 | 3,389,347 | 3,558,814 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,841,899) | (2,841,899) | (2,841,899) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 377,980 | 547,448 | 716,915 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 221.6 | 221.6 | 221.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1,706.06 | 2,470.98 | 3,235.89 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/USD | 147.8 | 147.8 | 147.8 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 11.55 | 16.72 | 21.90 | 15.61 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -26.0% | 7.1% | 40.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 8584 | 8515 | 8508 | 8572 | 8252 | CSAS.Y | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,966,804 | 938,265 | 10,047 | 1,411,031 | 1,212,094 | 3,352,903 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 108,230 | 49,103 | 128,822 | 52,031 | 50,653 | 139,399 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 59,506 | 45,613 | 16,262 | 1,460 | 46,233 | 436,452 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,982,668) | (801,849) | (75,076) | (687,808) | (728,097) | (3,404,400) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (6,735) | (3,209) | (18,510) | (52,625) | (421) | (13,350) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 145,137 | 227,923 | 61,545 | 724,089 | 580,462 | 511,004 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 34.8 | 478.8 | 133.5 | 1,566.6 | 179.5 | 221.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 4,175.00 | 476.00 | 461.00 | 462.20 | 3,234.00 | 2,306.49 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 147.76 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 4,175.00 | 476.00 | 461.00 | 462.20 | 3,234.00 | 15.61 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 147.76 | |