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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 4.8x - 5.3x | 5.1x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.4x - 4.9x | 4.6x |
| Fair Value | $1.24 - $1.45 | $1.34 |
| Upside | -8.2% - 7.4% | -0.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| ANA Holdings Inc. | 9202 | TSE:9202 |
| Qantas Airways Limited | QAN | ASX:QAN |
| Singapore Airlines Limited | C6L | SGX:C6L |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | IAG | BME:IAG |
| Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. | 9201 | TSE:9201 |
| Cathay Pacific Airways Limited | CPCA.F | OTCPK:CPCA.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 9202 | QAN | C6L | IAG | 9201 | CPCA.F | ||
| TSE:9202 | ASX:QAN | SGX:C6L | BME:IAG | TSE:9201 | OTCPK:CPCA.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 7.6% | 21.4% | 13.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 13.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 60.4% | NM- | NM- | 48.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.6% | 12.1% | -18.5% | 33.8% | 24.9% | 4.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 3.5% | 10.2% | 11.6% | -8.6% | 1.9% | 14.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 17.1% | 16.8% | 22.7% | 15.1% | 18.1% | 21.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 15.4% | 17.3% | 18.0% | 17.2% | 17.1% | 20.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 15.4% | 17.3% | 18.0% | 18.6% | 18.3% | 19.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.59x | 0.93x | 0.99x | 0.78x | 0.62x | 1.02x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.8x | 5.4x | 5.5x | 4.2x | 3.4x | 5.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 6.8x | 9.0x | 11.1x | 5.1x | 6.2x | 8.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.4x | 4.2x | 5.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -336.9x | 5.2x | 53.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.8x | 5.1x | 5.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 20,868 | 20,868 | 20,868 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 100,228 | 105,503 | 110,778 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (39,852) | (39,852) | (39,852) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 60,376 | 65,651 | 70,926 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 6,676.5 | 6,676.5 | 6,676.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 9.04 | 9.83 | 10.62 | ||||
| FX Rate: HKD/USD | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.16 | 1.26 | 1.37 | 1.35 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -13.9% | -6.4% | 1.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 9202 | QAN | C6L | IAG | 9201 | CPCA.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,340,801 | 22,079 | 19,409 | 25,786 | 1,170,633 | 109,955 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,287,995 | 2,213 | 9,256 | 9,348 | 953,149 | 8,912 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 158,953 | 45 | 4,666 | 284 | 175,290 | 16,497 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,398,961) | (7,956) | (12,914) | (14,807) | (891,381) | (65,254) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (10,200) | (5) | (414) | (6) | (41,268) | (7) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,378,588 | 16,376 | 20,002 | 20,605 | 1,366,423 | 70,103 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 469.9 | 1,482.0 | 3,072.6 | 4,616.9 | 436.6 | 6,676.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2,933.50 | 11.05 | 6.51 | 4.46 | 3,130.00 | 10.50 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.78 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2,933.50 | 11.05 | 6.51 | 4.46 | 3,130.00 | 1.35 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | AUD | SGD | EUR | JPY | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.78 | |