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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 7.9x - 8.7x | 8.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 8.9x - 9.9x | 9.4x |
| Fair Value | $1.25 - $1.46 | $1.36 |
| Upside | -8.1% - 7.7% | -0.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Qantas Airways Limited | QAN | ASX:QAN |
| ANA Holdings Inc. | 9202 | TSE:9202 |
| Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. | 9201 | TSE:9201 |
| Singapore Airlines Limited | C6L | SGX:C6L |
| Ryanair Holdings plc | RYAO.F | OTCPK:RYAO.F |
| Cathay Pacific Airways Limited | CPCA.F | OTCPK:CPCA.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| QAN | 9202 | 9201 | C6L | RYAO.F | CPCA.F | ||
| ASX:QAN | TSE:9202 | TSE:9201 | SGX:C6L | OTCPK:RYAO.F | OTCPK:CPCA.F | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 12.3% | 26.5% | 9.6% | 64.1% | 6.7% | 31.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -9.3% | 2.4% | 48.3% | -36.8% | 22.8% | 7.6% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -2.6% | -8.6% | -15.9% | -4.7% | -0.6% | 2.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 13.8% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 15.3% | 13.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 12.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.9% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 12.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.94x | 0.60x | 0.62x | 1.00x | 1.79x | 1.00x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.7x | 3.9x | 3.4x | 5.5x | 8.0x | 5.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.6x | 6.9x | 6.2x | 11.2x | 12.4x | 8.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 6.2x | 9.6x | 12.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -21.0x | 7.2x | 39.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 7.9x | 8.3x | 8.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 13,196 | 13,196 | 13,196 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 103,726 | 109,186 | 114,645 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (39,852) | (39,852) | (39,852) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 63,874 | 69,334 | 74,793 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 6,439.4 | 6,439.4 | 6,439.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 9.92 | 10.77 | 11.61 | ||||
| FX Rate: HKD/USD | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.27 | 1.38 | 1.49 | 1.36 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -6.5% | 1.4% | 9.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | QAN | 9202 | 9201 | C6L | RYAO.F | CPCA.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 21,595 | 1,366,648 | 1,189,405 | 19,709 | 43,959 | 108,203 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,340 | 1,287,995 | 953,149 | 9,256 | 4,348 | 8,912 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 46 | 158,953 | 175,290 | 4,666 | 0 | 16,497 | |
| (-) Debt | (7,229) | (1,398,961) | (891,381) | (12,914) | (2,324) | (65,254) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (5) | (10,200) | (41,268) | (414) | 0 | (7) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 16,747 | 1,404,435 | 1,385,195 | 20,302 | 45,984 | 68,351 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,482.0 | 469.9 | 436.6 | 3,062.2 | 1,780.9 | 6,439.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 11.30 | 2,988.50 | 3,173.00 | 6.63 | 25.82 | 10.61 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.85 | 7.82 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 11.30 | 2,988.50 | 3,173.00 | 6.63 | 30.26 | 1.36 | |
| Trading Currency | AUD | JPY | JPY | SGD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.85 | 7.82 | |