國泰航空有限公司

OTCPK:CPCAF

香港 / 工業 / 客運航空

綜觀

股息

10 年 DCF 增長退出價

股價

1.20 USD

公允價值

0.86 USD

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	14.3% - 13.3%	13.8%
Perpetuity Growth Rate	3.5% - 4.5%	4.0%
Fair Value	$0.75 - $1	$0.86
Upside	-42.2% - -23.5%	-33.8%

3.2%

Revenue 10y CAGR

23.6%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

-0.4%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Gordon Growth Exit

股價

1.20 USD

公允價值

0.86 USD

看漲

-33.8%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(HKD in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	104,371	111,853	116,667	123,193	124,449	129,851	132,448	135,097	137,799	140,555	143,366
% Growth	10.5%	7.2%	4.3%	5.6%	1.0%	4.3%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	21,449	25,695	25,170	29,437	29,737	31,028	31,649	32,282	32,927	33,586	34,257
% of Revenue	20.6%	23.0%	21.6%	23.9%	23.9%	23.9%	23.9%	23.9%	23.9%	23.9%	23.9%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(HKD in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34	Terminal

EBITDA		25,695	25,170	29,437	29,737	31,028	31,649	32,282	32,927	33,586	34,257	34,257
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(12,221)	(11,285)	(14,285)	(13,435)	(17,416)	(17,764)	(18,120)	(18,482)	(18,852)	(19,229)	(19,381)

EBIT		13,474	13,885	15,152	16,302	13,612	13,884	14,162	14,445	14,734	15,029	14,877
Pro forma Taxes		(1,886)	(1,944)	(2,121)	(2,282)	(1,906)	(1,944)	(1,983)	(2,022)	(2,063)	(2,104)	(2,083)
NOPAT	11,332	11,588	11,941	13,031	14,020	11,706	11,940	12,179	12,423	12,671	12,925	12,794

Capital Expenditures	(9,207)	(9,500)	(10,445)	(10,906)	(44,000)	(26,400)	(19,867)	(20,265)	(20,670)	(20,267)	(20,401)	(20,401)
NWC Investment	2,544	1,925	1,239	1,679	323	1,390	668	682	695	709	723	1,476
(+) D&A	8,272	12,221	11,285	14,285	13,435	17,416	17,764	18,120	18,482	18,852	19,229	19,381

Free Cash Flow	12,941	16,234	14,019	18,089	(16,222)	4,112	10,506	10,716	10,930	11,965	12,476	13,250
% Growth		25%	-14%	29%	NM	NM	155%	2%	2%	9%	4%	6%

載入錯誤

國泰航空有限公司

OTCPK:CPCAF

香港 / 工業 / 客運航空

10 年 DCF 增長退出價