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KLMR
90175.0%
RYAO.F
10.0%
1055
5.8%
HK
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國泰航空有限公司
OTCPK:CPCAF
香港 / 工業 / 客運航空
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股息
財報
模型
財務狀況
比較
穩健度
圖表
10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價
股價
1.36
USD
公允價值
1.17
USD
Metrics
Range
Conclusion
Discount Rate
11.0% - 10.0%
10.5%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple
5.2x - 7.2x
6.2x
Fair Value
$0.90 - $1.47
$1.17
Upside
-34.0% - 8.5%
-13.5%
3.4%
Revenue 10y CAGR
20.0%
10y Avg EBITDA Margin
-6.4%
Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR
10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit
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儲存
股價
1.36
USD
公允價值
1.17
USD
看漲
-13.5%
Revenue and EBITDA
CapEx
Working Capital
D&A
Tax Rate
Discount Rate
Terminal Value
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast
(HKD in millions)
Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending
Dec-24
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Dec-34
Revenue
104,371
111,589
116,378
123,080
124,306
130,502
135,070
137,771
140,526
143,337
146,204
% Growth
10.5%
6.9%
4.3%
5.8%
1.0%
5.0%
3.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
EBITDA
20,856
25,228
24,306
24,084
24,324
25,537
26,431
26,959
27,498
28,048
28,609
% of Revenue
20.0%
22.6%
20.9%
19.6%
19.6%
19.6%
19.6%
19.6%
19.6%
19.6%
19.6%
支援算式
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Discounting Periods
Discounting Factors
Calculation of Enterprise Value
Equity Waterfall
Historical Financials
Current Trading Multiples
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(HKD in millions)
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Dec-34
EBITDA
25,228
24,306
24,084
24,324
25,537
26,431
26,959
27,498
28,048
28,609
Other Income / (Exp)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
D&A
(12,784)
(12,929)
(11,261)
(8,951)
(12,130)
(12,554)
(12,805)
(13,061)
(13,323)
(13,589)
EBIT
12,444
11,377
12,823
15,373
13,407
13,876
14,154
14,437
14,726
15,020
Pro forma Taxes
(1,742)
(1,593)
(1,795)
(2,152)
(1,877)
(1,943)
(1,982)
(2,021)
(2,062)
(2,103)
NOPAT
11,332
10,701
9,784
11,028
13,221
11,530
11,934
12,172
12,416
12,664
12,917
Capital Expenditures
(9,207)
(9,500)
(10,427)
(11,961)
(44,000)
(26,400)
(20,260)
(20,666)
(21,079)
(20,668)
(20,804)
NWC Investment
2,886
2,107
1,398
1,957
358
1,809
1,334
789
804
821
837
(+) D&A
7,679
12,784
12,929
11,261
8,951
12,130
12,554
12,805
13,061
13,323
13,589
Free Cash Flow
12,691
16,093
13,684
12,285
(21,470)
(931)
5,561
5,101
5,203
6,139
6,539
% Growth
27%
-15%
-10%
NM
NM
NM
-8%
2%
18%
NM
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