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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1.9x - 2.1x | 2.0x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1.7x - 1.9x | 1.8x |
| Fair Value | $0.23 - $0.30 | $0.27 |
| Upside | -33.8% - -12.3% | -23.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Spring Airlines Co., Ltd. | 601021 | SHSE:601021 |
| Juneyao Airlines Co., Ltd | 603885 | SHSE:603885 |
| American Airlines Group Inc. | AAL_KZ | KAS:AAL_KZ |
| United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | UAL | NasdaqGS:UAL |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited | 539448 | BSE:539448 |
| China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited | CHEA.F | OTCPK:CHEA.F |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 601021 | 603885 | AAL_KZ | UAL | 539448 | CHEA.F | |||
| SHSE:601021 | SHSE:603885 | KAS:AAL_KZ | NasdaqGS:UAL | BSE:539448 | OTCPK:CHEA.F | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 6.5% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 19.3% | -0.2% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 24.2% | 25.8% | 22.0% | 32.3% | 67.6% | 24.7% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 24.9% | 23.3% | 2.7% | 6.2% | 17.2% | 16.1% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 0.8% | -3.2% | -12.7% | -11.2% | -2.8% | -21.2% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | -35.3% | -40.7% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.0% | -2.0% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 16.0% | 12.2% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 15.5% | 0.2% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.4% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 0.2% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.98x | 2.57x | 0.67x | 0.72x | 2.84x | 1.86x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 20.7x | 25.1x | 10.7x | 7.8x | 21.8x | 1027.3x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 2.57x | 1.33x | 0.12x | 0.41x | 2.54x | 0.57x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.67x | 2.57x | 2.98x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 1.86x | 3.43x | 5.74x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.91x | 2.01x | 2.11x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 132,120 | 132,120 | 132,120 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 252,307 | 265,586 | 278,865 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (170,449) | (170,449) | (170,449) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 81,858 | 95,137 | 108,416 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 49,311.3 | 49,311.3 | 49,311.3 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.66 | 1.93 | 2.20 | |||||
| FX Rate: CNY/USD | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.30 | 0.35 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -33.8% | -23.0% | -12.3% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 601021 | 603885 | AAL_KZ | UAL | 539448 | CHEA.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 58,625 | 55,930 | 36,644 | 40,216 | 2,190,349 | 294,078 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 9,612 | 1,568 | 7,618 | 14,475 | 360,394 | 4,243 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 959 | 4,570 | 515 | 1,267 | 0 | 4,147 | |
| (-) Debt | (18,743) | (33,103) | (37,544) | (33,633) | (592,369) | (177,962) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (877) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 50,453 | 28,977 | 7,233 | 22,325 | 1,958,374 | 123,629 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 976.8 | 2,188.6 | 657.6 | 327.3 | 386.4 | 49,311.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 51.65 | 13.24 | 11.00 | 68.20 | 5,067.95 | 2.51 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.27 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 51.65 | 13.24 | 11.00 | 68.20 | 5,067.95 | 0.35 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | USD | USD | INR | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.27 | |