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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 20.7x - 22.8x | 21.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.8x - 7.5x | 7.1x |
| Fair Value | $0.22 - $0.29 | $0.26 |
| Upside | -36.3% - -15.0% | -25.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| China Southern Airlines Company Limited | 600029 | SHSE:600029 |
| Spring Airlines Co., Ltd. | 601021 | SHSE:601021 |
| Juneyao Airlines Co., Ltd | 603885 | SHSE:603885 |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited | 539448 | BSE:539448 |
| Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA | NAS | OB:NAS |
| China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited | CHEA.F | OTCPK:CHEA.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 600029 | 601021 | 603885 | 539448 | NAS | CHEA.F | ||
| SHSE:600029 | SHSE:601021 | SHSE:603885 | BSE:539448 | OB:NAS | OTCPK:CHEA.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -3.0% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 114.1% | 12.5% | -8.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 189.1% | 70.2% | 105.9% | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.4% | 22.1% | 38.5% | 7.1% | 176.6% | 53.0% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 1.1% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 0.6% | -39.7% | -8.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.1% | -20.3% | -30.5% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 6.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 9.5% | 23.8% | 17.1% | 15.9% | 19.5% | 8.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.5% | 22.0% | 15.3% | 13.5% | 19.5% | 8.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.75x | 3.07x | 2.54x | 2.91x | 0.49x | 1.87x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 18.4x | 13.9x | 16.6x | 21.6x | 2.5x | 21.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 55.5x | 21.3x | 24.7x | 22.3x | 8.9x | 1032.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.5x | 16.6x | 21.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -66.3x | -15.1x | 1221.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 20.7x | 21.8x | 22.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 11,676 | 11,676 | 11,676 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 241,318 | 254,019 | 266,719 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (170,449) | (170,449) | (170,449) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 70,869 | 83,570 | 96,270 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 49,233.3 | 49,233.3 | 49,233.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.44 | 1.70 | 1.96 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/USD | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.35 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -42.7% | -32.4% | -22.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 600029 | 601021 | 603885 | 539448 | NAS | CHEA.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 303,967 | 60,764 | 55,077 | 2,222,442 | 16,590 | 294,154 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 18,689 | 9,612 | 1,568 | 360,394 | 10,880 | 4,243 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 9,975 | 959 | 4,570 | 0 | 0 | 4,147 | |
| (-) Debt | (223,447) | (18,743) | (33,103) | (592,369) | (16,077) | (177,962) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (17,866) | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | (877) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 91,318 | 52,592 | 28,124 | 1,990,467 | 11,393 | 123,705 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 15,853.9 | 976.8 | 2,188.6 | 386.4 | 963.9 | 49,233.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5.76 | 53.84 | 12.85 | 5,151.00 | 11.82 | 2.51 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.28 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.76 | 53.84 | 12.85 | 5,151.00 | 11.82 | 0.35 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | INR | NOK | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.28 | |