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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 12.0x - 13.3x | 12.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 10.6x - 11.8x | 11.2x |
| Fair Value | $0.28 - $0.33 | $0.31 |
| Upside | -19.4% - -4.5% | -12.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Türk Hava Yollari Anonim Ortakligi | THYAO | IBSE:THYAO |
| LATAM Airlines Group S.A. | LTM | SNSE:LTM |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | IAG | BME:IAG |
| Ryanair Holdings plc | RYAO.F | PINC:RYAO.F |
| easyJet plc | EJTT.F | PINC:EJTT.F |
| Air New Zealand Limited | ANZF.F | PINC:ANZF.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| THYAO | LTM | IAG | RYAO.F | EJTT.F | ANZF.F | ||
| IBSE:THYAO | SNSE:LTM | BME:IAG | PINC:RYAO.F | PINC:EJTT.F | PINC:ANZF.F | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 73.7% | 15.4% | 6.5% | 15.2% | 5.1% | -7.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 80.0% | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.5% | 42.9% | 24.7% | -21.3% | 31.5% | -53.2% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.5% | -11.2% | -15.2% | -0.7% | -21.1% | -5.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 13.5% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 5.6% | 9.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 10.3% | 12.0% | 14.1% | 15.3% | 6.4% | 3.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.3% | 12.0% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 6.4% | 3.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.88x | 1.14x | 0.68x | 1.56x | 0.38x | 0.46x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.2x | 6.2x | 3.9x | 7.7x | 4.0x | 5.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.5x | 9.5x | 4.8x | 12.6x | 5.9x | 14.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 4.8x | 8.5x | 12.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -13.1x | 8.5x | 32.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 12.0x | 12.6x | 13.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 218 | 218 | 218 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,615 | 2,752 | 2,890 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,187) | (1,187) | (1,187) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,428 | 1,565 | 1,703 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,342.5 | 3,342.5 | 3,342.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.51 | ||||
| FX Rate: NZD/USD | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.30 | 0.35 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -27.0% | -20.0% | -13.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | THYAO | LTM | IAG | RYAO.F | EJTT.F | ANZF.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 657,628 | 14,407 | 21,876 | 14,401 | 4,094 | 3,144 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 214,148 | 1,962 | 9,799 | 2,751 | 3,461 | 1,542 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 61,960 | 0 | 234 | 0 | 51 | 235 | |
| (-) Debt | (489,955) | (7,150) | (17,345) | (2,700) | (3,315) | (2,964) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (125) | 12 | (6) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 443,656 | 9,232 | 14,558 | 14,453 | 4,291 | 1,957 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,380.0 | 604,437.9 | 4,748.2 | 1,391.7 | 827.5 | 3,342.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 321.50 | 0.02 | 3.07 | 10.39 | 5.19 | 0.59 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 0.75 | 1.67 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 321.50 | 14.25 | 3.07 | 11.77 | 6.89 | 0.35 | |
| Trading Currency | TRY | CLP | EUR | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 0.75 | 1.67 | |