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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 20.7x - 22.9x | 21.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 14.1x - 15.5x | 14.8x |
| Fair Value | kr370.90 - kr411.11 | kr391 |
| Upside | 0.0% - 10.8% | 5.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) | SCA A | OM:SCAA |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj | RPL | DB:RPL |
| Mondi plc | KYC0 | DB:KYC0 |
| Stora Enso Oyj | STE A | OM:STEA |
| Billerud AB (publ) | BILL | OM:BILL |
| Holmen AB (publ) | HOLM A | OM:HOLMA |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| SCA A | RPL | KYC0 | STE A | BILL | HOLM A | ||
| OM:SCAA | DB:RPL | DB:KYC0 | OM:STEA | OM:BILL | OM:HOLMA | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.1% | -4.5% | -13.9% | -17.4% | 12.6% | 11.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -16.8% | -8.2% | -11.7% | -34.2% | -0.6% | -1.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 27.7% | 8.0% | 0.7% | 791.9% | 157.9% | -33.2% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 17.2% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 16.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 12.8% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 17.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 14.8% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 11.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.8% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 11.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 4.55x | 1.30x | 1.05x | 0.92x | 0.65x | 2.55x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 19.5x | 6.5x | 8.1x | 10.9x | 6.2x | 14.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 30.7x | 12.8x | 14.3x | 25.2x | 14.5x | 21.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 12.8x | 14.5x | 30.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 11.3x | 21.7x | 37.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 20.7x | 21.8x | 22.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 2,783 | 2,783 | 2,783 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 57,739 | 60,778 | 63,817 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,741) | (1,741) | (1,741) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 55,998 | 59,037 | 62,076 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 157.7 | 157.7 | 157.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 355.16 | 374.44 | 393.71 | ||||
| FX Rate: SEK/SEK | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 355.16 | 374.44 | 393.71 | 371.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -4.3% | 0.9% | 6.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | SCA A | RPL | KYC0 | STE A | BILL | HOLM A | |
| Enterprise Value | 102,023 | 13,019 | 7,923 | 8,946 | 28,254 | 60,236 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,328 | 893 | 278 | 1,999 | 2,561 | 234 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,272 | 2,267 | 34 | 1,567 | 952 | 1,707 | |
| (-) Debt | (14,583) | (3,913) | (2,015) | (5,779) | (7,966) | (3,682) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (401) | (493) | 150 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 90,040 | 11,865 | 5,727 | 6,883 | 23,801 | 58,495 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 702.3 | 528.7 | 440.5 | 788.6 | 248.7 | 157.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 128.20 | 22.44 | 13.00 | 8.73 | 95.70 | 371.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.09 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 128.20 | 22.44 | 13.00 | 96.60 | 95.70 | 371.00 | |
| Trading Currency | SEK | EUR | EUR | SEK | SEK | SEK | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.09 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |