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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.7x - 6.3x | 6.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.6x - 5.1x | 4.8x |
| Fair Value | kr60.45 - kr66.58 | kr63.52 |
| Upside | -22.3% - -14.4% | -18.3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Voestalpine AG | VAS | DB:VAS |
| Nippon Steel Corporation | NPS | DB:NPS |
| Aperam S.A. | APAM | BDL:APAM |
| Tubacex, S.A. | TUB | BME:TUB |
| SSAB AB (publ) | SSAB A | OM:SSABA |
| Alleima AB (publ) | ALLEI | OM:ALLEI |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| VAS | NPS | APAM | TUB | SSAB A | ALLEI | ||
| DB:VAS | DB:NPS | BDL:APAM | BME:TUB | OM:SSABA | OM:ALLEI | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 0.0% | 15.4% | -5.4% | 15.2% | 19.1% | 0.4% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 12.2% | -3.1% | -38.1% | 118.8% | -19.2% | 0.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -31.8% | -9.4% | 134.7% | -6.3% | -47.2% | 35.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 11.1% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 13.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 13.2% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 14.6% | 16.3% | 13.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 9.1% | 10.8% | 3.9% | 13.9% | 10.9% | 11.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 7.6% | 10.8% | 4.4% | 14.6% | 9.3% | 13.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.43x | 0.38x | 0.51x | 1.16x | 0.44x | 0.95x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.6x | 3.5x | 11.6x | 7.9x | 4.7x | 7.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.7x | 6.0x | 27.7x | 12.8x | 7.4x | 10.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.5x | 5.6x | 11.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.3x | 6.8x | 7.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.7x | 6.0x | 6.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 2,604 | 2,604 | 2,604 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 14,791 | 15,569 | 16,348 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 545 | 545 | 545 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 15,336 | 16,114 | 16,893 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 250.2 | 250.2 | 250.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 61.30 | 64.41 | 67.52 | ||||
| FX Rate: SEK/SEK | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 61.30 | 64.41 | 67.52 | 77.75 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -21.2% | -17.2% | -13.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | VAS | NPS | APAM | TUB | SSAB A | ALLEI | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,725 | 3,267,135 | 3,173 | 884 | 44,802 | 18,906 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 725 | 672,526 | 185 | 167 | 23,832 | 1,757 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 345 | 2,061,744 | 5 | 0 | 1,233 | 177 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,461) | (2,507,492) | (1,420) | (471) | (9,662) | (1,389) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (247) | (520,069) | (15) | (106) | (49) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 4,087 | 2,973,844 | 1,928 | 475 | 60,156 | 19,451 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 171.5 | 1,045.2 | 72.3 | 121.7 | 996.6 | 250.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 23.84 | 2,845.27 | 26.68 | 3.91 | 60.36 | 77.75 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 163.97 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 23.84 | 17.35 | 26.68 | 3.91 | 60.36 | 77.75 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | SEK | SEK | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 163.97 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |