Vistra Energy Corp

NYSE:VST

美國 / 公用事業 / 獨立能源和可再生電力公司

綜觀

股息

10 年 DCF 收入退出價

股價

112.69 USD

公允價值

183.52 USD

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	8.8% - 7.8%	8.3%
Terminal Revenue Multiple	1.6x - 1.8x	1.7x
Fair Value	$170.79 - $197.05	$183.52
Upside	51.6% - 74.9%	62.9%

9.7%

Revenue 10y CAGR

38.1%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

14.5%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Revenue Exit

股價

112.69 USD

公允價值

183.52 USD

看漲

62.9%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(USD in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	17,224	20,180	21,267	22,496	22,509	22,186	29,046	34,855	39,212	42,153	43,628
% Growth	16.5%	17.2%	5.4%	5.8%	0.1%	-1.4%	30.9%	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%	3.5%

EBITDA	6,766	5,917	6,547	7,129	7,644	9,250	11,608	14,801	17,043	18,532	19,181
% of Revenue	39.3%	29.3%	30.8%	31.7%	34.0%	41.7%	40.0%	42.5%	43.5%	44.0%	44.0%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

EBITDA		5,917	6,547	7,129	7,644	9,250	11,608	14,801	17,043	18,532	19,181
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(1,764)	(2,138)	(2,175)	(2,504)	(3,150)	(4,124)	(4,949)	(5,568)	(5,985)	(6,195)

EBIT		4,153	4,409	4,954	5,140	6,100	7,484	9,852	11,476	12,547	12,986
Pro forma Taxes		(1,038)	(1,102)	(1,239)	(1,285)	(1,525)	(1,871)	(2,463)	(2,869)	(3,137)	(3,247)
NOPAT	3,061	3,115	3,307	3,716	3,855	4,575	5,613	7,389	8,607	9,410	9,740

Capital Expenditures	(2,078)	(2,275)	(1,908)	(1,762)	(2,002)	(2,528)	(2,097)	(2,209)	(2,278)	(2,195)	(2,227)
NWC Investment	(142)	(171)	(63)	(71)	(1)	19	(398)	(337)	(253)	(171)	(86)
(+) D&A	2,685	1,764	2,138	2,175	2,504	3,150	4,124	4,949	5,568	5,985	6,195

Free Cash Flow	3,526	2,432	3,474	4,058	4,356	5,216	7,242	9,792	11,643	13,030	13,621
% Growth			43%	17%	7%	20%	39%	35%	19%	12%	5%

載入錯誤

Vistra Energy Corp

NYSE:VST

美國 / 公用事業 / 獨立能源和可再生電力公司

10 年 DCF 收入退出價