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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.4x - 8.1x | 7.8x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.5x - 7.2x | 6.8x |
Fair Value | $16.24 - $23.53 | $19.88 |
Upside | -52.9% - -31.7% | -42.3% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
United States Cellular Corporation | USM | NYSE:USM |
T-Mobile US, Inc. | TMUS | NasdaqGS:TMUS |
Lumen Technologies, Inc. | LUMN | NYSE:LUMN |
Frontier Communications Parent, Inc. | FYBR | NasdaqGS:FYBR |
AT&T Inc. | T | NYSE:T |
Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. | TDS | NYSE:TDS |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
USM | TMUS | LUMN | FYBR | T | TDS | ||
NYSE:USM | NasdaqGS:TMUS | NYSE:LUMN | NasdaqGS:FYBR | NYSE:T | NYSE:TDS | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -0.5% | 19.1% | -17.2% | -7.9% | -3.5% | -0.3% | |
3Y CAGR | -2.3% | 5.6% | -25.7% | -3.7% | -4.0% | -2.1% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -3.8% | 8.3% | -9.0% | -2.9% | 5.0% | -3.2% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 20.8% | 34.9% | 35.0% | 38.3% | 34.3% | 21.6% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 20.7% | 36.4% | 28.4% | 38.1% | 34.2% | 20.8% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 21.5% | 38.2% | 26.0% | 35.8% | 35.9% | 22.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 21.4% | 38.2% | 26.2% | 36.2% | 36.0% | 22.1% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 2.32x | 4.78x | 1.57x | 3.39x | 2.92x | 2.07x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.8x | 12.5x | 6.0x | 9.4x | 8.1x | 9.4x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 65.6x | 20.9x | 41.7x | 41.9x | 13.5x | 77.8x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.0x | 9.4x | 12.5x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.5x | 6.1x | 8.7x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.4x | 7.8x | 8.1x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 1,072 | 1,072 | 1,072 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 7,900 | 8,316 | 8,731 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (6,084) | (6,084) | (6,084) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 1,816 | 2,232 | 2,647 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 114.7 | 114.7 | 114.7 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 15.83 | 19.45 | 23.07 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 15.83 | 19.45 | 23.07 | 34.47 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -54.1% | -43.6% | -33.1% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | USM | TMUS | LUMN | FYBR | T | TDS | |
Enterprise Value | 8,593 | 394,981 | 20,367 | 20,269 | 357,066 | 10,039 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 182 | 12,003 | 1,900 | 506 | 6,979 | 348 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 479 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,534 | 527 | |
(-) Debt | (3,819) | (121,692) | (17,927) | (11,643) | (145,288) | (5,095) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (30) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (18,095) | (790) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,074) | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 5,405 | 285,292 | 4,340 | 9,132 | 202,196 | 3,955 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 85.1 | 1,135.4 | 1,025.9 | 250.2 | 7,195.6 | 114.7 | |
Implied Stock Price | 63.52 | 251.26 | 4.23 | 36.49 | 28.10 | 34.47 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 63.52 | 251.26 | 4.23 | 36.49 | 28.10 | 34.47 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |