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觀察名單觀點 ProPicks AI 篩選器數據瀏覽圖表已儲存工作 WarrenAI

Phillips 66 Ltd

NYSE:PSX

美國 / 能源 / 燃油、氣體及消耗品燃料

DDM 多階段

股價

124.70 USD

公允價值

213.69 USD

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Perpetuity Growth Rate	6.3% - 6.8%	6.5%
Discount Rate	11.4% - 10.4%	10.9%
Fair Value	$183.44 - $256.44	$213.69
Upside	46.1% - 104.2%	70.2%

4.80

Current Dividend per Share

3.8%

Current Dividend Yield

6.0%

3yr Avg Div Growth

4.7%

Ytd Div Growth

Dividend Discount Model: Multi Stage

股價

124.70 USD

公允價值

213.69 USD

看漲

70.2%

Project Adj Dividends

Perpetuity Growth Rate

Fair Value


Project Adjusted Dividends

		Fiscal Year Ending
(USD in millions)	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28		Dec-29	Terminal

Net Income to Common	2,107	1,653	3,987	4,518	5,029		5,258	5,258
% Growth	-69.9%	-21.5%	141.1%	13.3%	11.3%		4.6%

Payout Ratio	89.3%	89.0%	89.0%	89.0%	89.0%		90.0%	92.5%

Projected Dividends	1,882	1,471	3,548	4,021	4,476		4,732	4,864
% Growth		-21.8%	141.1%	13.3%	11.3%		5.7%

支援算式

Historical Performance

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Pv of Discrete Dividends

Pv of Terminal Dividends


Historical Performance

	Fiscal Year Ending						YTD	YTD
(USD in millions)	Dec-20	Dec-21	Dec-22	Dec-23	Dec-24		Mar-24	Mar-25

Cash Dividends Paid	1,575	1,585	1,793	1,882	1,882		448	469
% Growth		1%	13%	5%	0%			5%

Net Income to Common	(3,983)	1,306	11,014	7,004	2,107		746	485
% Growth		NM	743%	-36%	-70%			-35%

Payout Ratio	-40%	121%	16%	27%	89%		60%	97%
Retention Ratio	140%	-21%	84%	73%	11%		40%	3%

Adjusted EBITDA	(161)	2,083	11,483	10,212	4,161		1,280	398
% Growth		NM	451%	-11%	-59%			-69%

Total Debt	17,115	15,516	18,217	20,511	21,417		20,154	18,803
Shareholder's Equity	18,984	19,166	29,494	30,583	27,408		29,726	27,273

Debt / EBITDA	(106.3)	7.4	1.6	2.0	5.1			5.7
Debt / Equity	90%	81%	62%	67%	78%		68%	69%


3-Yr Avg. Dividend Growth	6.0%
5-Yr Median Payout Ratio	26.9%

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