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WLHS.F -10.8%DSX 9.2%AMKB.F -6.0%

觀察名單觀點 ProPicks AI 篩選器數據瀏覽圖表已儲存工作 WarrenAI

Matson

NYSE:MATX

美國 / 工業 / 海運

10 年 DCF 增長退出價

股價

117.62 USD

公允價值

79.66 USD

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	10.5% - 9.5%	10.0%
Perpetuity Growth Rate	5.0% - 6.0%	5.5%
Fair Value	$64.06 - $104.08	$79.66
Upside	-45.5% - -11.5%	-32.3%

1.2%

Revenue 10y CAGR

17.7%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

-3.1%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Gordon Growth Exit

股價

117.62 USD

公允價值

79.66 USD

看漲

-32.3%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(USD in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	3,422	3,108	3,269	3,367	3,434	3,503	3,573	3,645	3,717	3,792	3,868
% Growth	10.6%	-9.2%	5.2%	3.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	714	533	562	598	610	623	635	648	661	674	687
% of Revenue	20.9%	17.1%	17.2%	17.8%	17.8%	17.8%	17.8%	17.8%	17.8%	17.8%	17.8%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(USD in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34	Terminal

EBITDA		533	562	598	610	623	635	648	661	674	687	687
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(225)	(206)	(201)	(205)	(209)	(213)	(217)	(221)	(226)	(230)	(363)

EBIT		307	356	398	406	414	422	431	439	448	457	325
Pro forma Taxes		(68)	(78)	(88)	(89)	(91)	(93)	(95)	(97)	(99)	(101)	(71)
NOPAT	437	240	278	310	317	323	329	336	343	350	357	253

Capital Expenditures	(311)	(415)	(450)	(320)	(395)	(403)	(373)	(380)	(385)	(379)	(382)	(382)
NWC Investment	5	(4)	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	3
(+) D&A	153	225	206	201	205	209	213	217	221	226	230	363

Free Cash Flow	284	45	36	192	127	129	170	174	180	197	206	237
% Growth		-84%	-20%	434%	-34%	2%	32%	2%	3%	10%	5%	15%

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